Tuesday, July 25, 2006

CD 8 Opening the Media Barrage

The Giffords camp launches a major media campaign today. The first TV ad is available on the Giffords web site. (link)

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Jeff Latas’s financial report has been posted on the FEC site and shows cash on hand of a tad more than $20,000. Of course the FEC report covers only up to June 30th and we can reasonably expect that fund raising continues, but it compares to Giffords’s $588,000 and Weiss’s nearly $145,000. Even conservative Democrat Bill Johnson reports fifty grand. (His own money in the campaign.)

Latas is a determined candidate and his supporters are both energetic and devoted. Jeff is not likely to throw in the towel and that’s what makes this campaign an interesting test: Can a net-roots campaign and shoe leather make up for under funding?...or is the concept of under-funding simply too last century for words.

If Latas wins the primary he will face a serious financial challenge from his Republican opponent.

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There have been several news stories lately about the importance of the CD 8 race, as evidenced by the fact that the national Democratic Party has reserved 8 weeks of media time for the general election campaign.

The operative word here is “reserved.” The time was not bought and banked, to be parceled out for the benefit of the Democratic primary winner. Whoever that is will still have to buy his, or her, own time.

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A short note on the war on terror and terror's war on us.Oh, I know the chaos seems healthy but there are still people who are not doing their part. Where are the Rational Humanist terrorists? Why are there no Suicide Reasoners or Logic Bombers?

82 comments:

cc burro said...

I see where you are leading with this.

I am sure that the Democrats in CD 8 will donate their time and money to whomever wins the Democratic primary. May the best/strongest candidate to go up against the Republican win!

For me, that is Jeff Latas.

sirocco said...

Oh yes, whichever Democrat wins the primary will get funding from me, and hopefully one or two other folks as well. :)

Been kind of wondering when the media would kick off, I really expected it a week ago. Anyone have an idea as to what it costs to run a commerical in Tucson and areas SE? I realize it varies by time slot, market, etc., just looking for a very, very rough ball park figure.

Framer said...

As for secular humanist terrorists you've got This guy and some other dude for starters.

Compared to these guys, today's terrorists are just pikers.

Liza said...

Whoever wins the CD8 primary is not going to have a problem with fundraising. That is the least of our worries.

As for what is going on in the world, it is as though we have lost our collective mind. If we (the US) support the idea that a nation's vital infrastructure and its civilians are legitimate targets, then we are not only violating Geneva Conventions but we have crossed a moral line from which there is no return, at least not anytime soon. In the past we have always at least tried to frame civilian deaths and casualties as collateral damage, but something has changed. Our government's enthusiastic support for the destruction of Lebanon is one of the lowest moral moments I can remember. The Democrats, of course, have fallen in line to support the whole thing, never sure exactly what position to take because their main concern is getting re-elected. This is just a replay of their support for the invasion of Iraq.

I am totally convinced that if there is a way to wrench a defeat from the jaws of victory in 2008, the Democrats will find it.

AZYouLikeIt said...

Art, by your logic, we ought to support anyone BUT Gabby in the primary!

Here's why: Gabby's already maxed out on contributions from hundreds, if not thousands of major Democratic party donors.

She's about to blow all that cash trying to beat Patty (and Jeff and Alex and Francine and Bill -- OK, not Bill) in the primary.

If she were to win, who does she go to to raise more money? There's no one left!

Patty and Jeff, on the other hand, could still pick up max contributions from hundreds of people who've been ordered by Raul's camp to steer clear of anyone but Gabby.

In short: Gabby will have the HARDEST time raising money for the general election fight. The only strategy that wins her the primary (spending $500,000 on TV) is the strategy that cripples her in the general.

Art Jacobson said...

As You Like It...

I seriously doubt that the Giffords Campaign is going to spend 500 Grand on TV. Even if it did that would leave untouched whatever funding was escrowed for the general election.

The slightly paranoid idea that Grijalva has ordered people not to donate to other campaigns strikes me, quite frankly, as loony. Latas supporters would simply tell Raul to go to hell.

If Jeff had any supporters with money in the wings, just waiting til the moment's right, I would have thought they might have been lending a hand in the primary.

All we can do is see how it plays out.
We certainly live in interesting times.

Rev. Gerry Straatemeier said...

Have to say that the idea that the one who attracts the wealthiest supporters is the finest Democrat to represent working families is still pretty hard to swallow, but such is the reality of pay-to-pay Federal politics. I will be fascinated as well to see if a smart, creative, shoe-leather "peoples campaign" on behalf of a principled candidate, based on issues and not personality, fires the imagination of the majority of Democrats or if the money wins again. Clearly, Jeff LATAS is the candidate I support.

Where are the debates before the people? I heard every candidate has agreed to debate, but one. (hint, the one with all the money only has an advantage if the voters only see her ads and never meet the competition)

By the way, another subject, Google " “Clean Break” and you will find a document written in the 90-’s by the neocons outlining for Benjamin Netanyahu their “Clean Break” strategy for Israel for the new century - depose Sadaam, invade lebanon, the whole thing is laid out. Heard about it on Randi Roades yesterday.

Oh, please, let us debate the issues!

kralmajales said...

I agree with Art again. On Giffords being "maxed out"...that is hardly true. People have claimed that since she filed her first report in Jan. She then beat that figure in March and then dropped only slightly from what was already an enormously high quarterly figure.

This is going to be one of the biggest races in the country. Money will flow to all candidates who win, but Giffords has proven that she has the organization and a network already...something that detractors hit her for, but is super important for the fall.

Dogma said...

Just to clarify… The limit for individual contributions is $2,100 per individual per election. The primary is considered a separate election from the general.

George Tuttle said...

Don Diamond is almost maxed out on Patty's campaign. I wonder what he wants??
http://www.gilamonsterville.blogspot.com

Liza said...

If we're going to vote for candidates based on their fundraising organizations then Hillary wins in 2008, no contest. If that happens I'm going to take a hard look at the Libertarian.

As for CD8, I think we should expect something very similar to CA-CD50, Randy "Duke" Cunningham's district. In this Congressional district, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 55,000. Based on reports filed at the end of April, Francine Busby had raised almost four times as much money as Brian Bilbray. However, the NRCC infused around 4.5 million as well as about 200 "volunteers" into Bilbray's campaign. They had an anti-immigration message focused on anti-amnesty and pro-wall and managed to win the election. The Democrats also infused somewhere close to 2 million into Busby's campaign but apparently their anti-corruption message didn't resonate with voters as well as anti-immigration.

Democrats spin this as not so bad because the Republicans paid dearly and won narrowly. Well, they did win and now Bilbray will be an incumbent in November when they face off again. Bilbray will undoubtedly win.

Well, the CD8 General election will most likely mirror what happened in CD50. The Republicans will infuse millions of dollars and hammer away at their anti-immigration message. What worked in CD50 could work just as well in CD8 given the demographics and the proximity to the Mexican border. The biggest unknown, of course, is voter turnout which is much higher for General elections.

No matter how you look at this, the Democrats have to step up for whoever the candidate is and I just hope they are prepared. I think the candidate is going to need about 3 million, at least.

Kralmajales said...
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Willcox Jim said...

From what I've read, Gabby seems to mirror Lieberman, and especially Hillary Clinton on most issues, including the tone of the campaign.

Where can I find a complete record of her floor and subcommittee votes besides ALIS?

That thing is incomplete and sucks for real research.

Kralmajales said...
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Willcox Jim said...

Did this Walmart vote of Gabby's really cost the state 20 million like Latas says?

Is it true she killed it instead of offering amendments?

I'm looking for some positive committee votes and floor votes that show Gabby to be trustworthy and principled. Where are these votes?

Planned Parenthood is worthy and safe as a vote and stand. Only idiots oppose it, and Gabby is no idiot. What else is there concerning health care and protecting the open spaces from development?

Does her property manager hat have conflicts with her politician day job?

Kralmajales said...
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Liza said...

Kralmajales,
I'm not talking about the candidates raising the money the hard way. None of them can do it, not even Giffords. I'm talking about a direct infusion of cash from national party resources just like what happened in CD50.

I didn't compare Giffords to Hillary. I said that we cannot vote for candidates based on their fundraising organizations. There's no way to logically take that statement to infer anything Giffords' positions on abortion or the Iraq war or anything else.

CD50 is very troubling, or at least it should be. Democratic positions such as universal health care, anti-corruption, end the war in Iraq (take your pick) do not seem to be able to trump the single threaded anti-immigration message of the border state Republicans.

So, assuming Giffords wins the primary, what exactly is the winning srtategy going to be in this basically conservative district? What will the focus be? A broad range of issues to demonstrate her broad appeal? It won't work.

Apparently, the Republicans were immensely pleased that the CD50 voters did not hold the transgressions of one Republican against Republicans in general. "Duke" was such a flagrant crook that he could almost pass as an aberration. In CD8, voters will see a clean slate more or less because none of these candidates have served in Congress. So, conservatives who are fed up with the Bush Administration are not necessarily going to hold anything against these fresh, new Republican candidates.

I'm not pleased to be saying any of this, but I really fear that another anti-immigration, single issue campaign could win this district. I would like to think that voters would consider multiple issues, but they tend not to. The average voter will take the path of least resistance, the one demanding the least analysis.

Kralmajales, everyone here already knows you're in love with Giffords, we just don't talk about it.

Willcox Jim said...

I don't know Latas either, but I watched the video.

I met Frank Antenori in Willcox, and he would be the best of the Republicans, because the big dogs won't fund him, and he can say what he likes as a result.

I should be Democrat Jim, because I could never vote for a Republican because it rewards bad behavior.

I'm undecided until I know who can win this election.

I saw Gabrielle Giffords at the forum, and she reminded me of Hillary Clinton, in attitude and talking points. I sometimes like Hillary, and I sometimes get annoyed by her half witted devious pandering. Sometimes Hillary is a winner, though I wish she would be a little kinder to working people. Hillary was the first woman on the board of Walmart, and this reminds me of this Walmart hassle that Gabby was the point person for.

Kralmajales said...
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Kralmajales said...
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Willcox Jim said...

Did Gabrielle's vote for the big boxes like Walmart and Basha's cost us or not?

Are there other skeletons that are hidden by ALIS? I want some answers that aren't readily available on Gabby's site, or on votesmart. She is not a safe bet until we know more. Latas will have to write a big check to survive, but he can when he wants. Alex Rodriguez and Patty Weiss also have big checkbooks when the moment of decision arrives.

This race is fluid for these reasons, and I want to be assured that Gabby is a safe bet and I want her complete voting record to decide this.

Kralmajales said...
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Willcox Jim said...

Where do you get 'not a cent' and Latas says 20 million? That is a gap.

Willcox Jim said...

How do all of these people "know it" and so should I?

I'm the one asking for information so that I CAN know it.

Please post the record for the record, and please have Jeff Latas cite the 20 million figure. And please explain why killing the vote in committee didn't cost a cent. This is a request for information, not a leap of faith.

Kralmajales said...
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YoliEscondida said...

Kralmajales is right. Gabby's vote against WalMart SB1065 helps keep prices low, even if they have workers subsidized by the state. I like the lower prices, and I don't buy the high cost of lower prices that Gabby's vote cost the voters. Gabby saved us at the checkout counter at all of those stores, and I wish to thank her for that. I'm glad Kralmajales has the guts to tell you anti-Walmart types to stick it where the sun don't shine.

sirocco said...

WJ:

Latas makes the assumption the bill wold have passed on the floor had it passed in committee.

This is extremely unlikely for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the Bill's original sponsor ended up voting against it.

Liza:

I disagree with you somewhat on the significance of the CA50 result.

Recall this was a single race in a Republican-dominated district. The Republicans dropped a _lot_ more money into the race to hold the seat by a relatively narrow margin.

In the November election the Republicans will be defending a wide range of seats, and will have a hard time overwhelming any single race with money as they did in CA50. They also won't have the same registrastion edge they had in CA50.

I think issues such as corruption_did_ get some traction in the district, just not enough to get past the large advantages the Republicans enjoy there, advantages they don't have in most races.

Kralmajales said...
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YoliEscondida said...

I wish Gabby would bring up Bashas more, because she knows how to keep the unions under control too. I'm glad both Bashas and the unions support her, and I'm glad she listens to the Walmart lobbyists when she votes. She's got guts and she's cool to get these endorsements and contributions;

anonymous said...

It is interesting how Gabby can have both Bashas and the support of the food worker unions, or the contradiction between the Sierra Club supporting her and her flirting with nuclear power to slow green house gases. Her clean elections stance is full of contrasts too. It is interesting to see that we are now in the long anticipated TV campaign. Will this do anything to help Gabby with the voters? The first ad looks like she loves the place and can still afford horses. Its a bio, but what did it say?

She approves this message because change can't wait?

x4mr said...

Willcox,

For a better understanding of what is going on with this bill, it is thoroughly discussed
here.

Liza,

As always your remarks are well thought out but IMHO CD 8 has become its own animal and I am skeptical of comparisons to other races. Not really sure the CD50 dynamics apply. Maybe to a little extent.

To meaningfully discuss the final outcome, must state which individuals emerge on 9/12.

We are talking night and day the difference between facing Huffman and facing Graf, regardless of D nominee. As far as I am concerned, those are two different elections.

Brief remark on the ads. Giffords ad really surprised me. It is amazingly "light."

Hellon's is "heavy." Huffman's is in between.

I'm still pondering, and I am not saying heavy is good and light is bad or vice versa, but they have me thinking.

Giffords half a minute leaves me with the strongest sense of "having met her." Huffman says a little more about his issues, and Hellon has me wondering when to suit up and head south to join the fight.

boohoo said...

Wilcox Jim,

Here is the article about the cost and how it could have been different.

http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/health/86485.php

I did some quick math, Wal-Mart cost us tax payers nearly $25 million alone, Basha was right behind the Walton’s.

Fun some of the quotes in this article.

"The numbers came as a surprise to state Sen. Richard Miranda, D-Phoenix, who tried earlier this year to get a law requiring the DES to disclose the employers of people on AHCCCS. That measure was defeated amid opposition from corporate lobbyists, including Rip Wilson representing Wal-Mart."

Rip is donor to the Giffords campaign.

Hope this helps in your voting for the candidate with some integrity.

sirocco said...

Boohoo,

Of course, the article you reference is in regard to SB1470, a completely different bill entirely.

Liza said...

yoliescondida,
Wal-Mart sucks. Anyone who buys their clothes or linens at Wal-Mart does not know how to shop. I wear Liz Claiborne and other designer brands and I bet I spend less money than people who buy clothes at Wal-mart. The same is true for linens. Better quality is available at better prices for those who know how to shop.

Everyone else,
Sorry for the above diversion from the subject but I can't sit here and allow anyone to extoll the virtues of Wal-Mart. They sell a lot of crap. Enough said.

kralmajales, sirocco, x4mr,
I hope I'm wrong but I think its going to be an uphill battle in the CD8 general election to get voters to think past immigration as the pivotal issue. In the Democratic primary, voters will definitely pay attention to Iraq, the Mideast, deficit spending, universal health care, etc... because those are the concerns of Democrats. I'm not convinced that any of those will trump immigration. I hope that I'm wrong and that my Republican dominated precinct is the reason for my flawed analysis.

Yes, anti-corruption did get some traction in CD50 but not enough to win, amazingly enough. How corrupt does your representative need to be for you entertain the idea of giving the other party a chance? Bilbray himself said that his victory proves that the voters believe that 12 million immigrants are a bigger problem than one crook in the House of Representatives.

Republicans may not be able to spend as much in CD8 as they did in CD50, but I have to believe that they see similarities in the two districts and will employ the same strategy. Realistically, what else have they got? Stay the course in Iraq, bomb Iran, privatize social security, do nothing about health care, keep the minimum wage at $5.15/hr, repeal the estate tax, think of more tax cuts for the wealthy. Really, what else have they got except immigration and the money to ram it down everyone's throat.

I hope I'm wrong.

Kralmajales said...
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YoliEscondida said...

I used to like buying really expensive clothes, now I like for guys to buy them for me. I like Walmart because it helps the Chinese with exchange their dollars with us.

boohoo said...

It was the interest of 1470 that brought SB1065 forward. Manny Alverez is who pushed for employers of companies of more than 100 to remburse Arizona for the use of state funded medical expenses in the state house.

Framer said...

Roger,

Trying to keep an objective hat on, but don't you think that any hope of getting pro-business Republican types to cross over and vote Democrat for cheaper labor is virtually neutralized by the promise of every Democratic candidate to raise their taxes.?

You can call it "rolling back the tax cuts" or "making everyone pay their fair share" but the reality is that these guys are going to pay a lot more in taxes should the Democrats take control. This is far more of a certainty than the sending home of every illegal alien without some sort of guest worker plan.

Everybody that owns a business, even the extremely small ones will get hit with more taxes should the tax cuts be rolled back. Every investor, and just about everyone that pays taxes. If a candidate says that only the rich will pay more, they better be prepared to draw that line between rich and poor. Otherwise, the middle class will assume that they are not poor and are going to get hit.

And again on the Walmart thing. A great portion of the voters shop at Walmart, and actually like Walmart. If this continues to be the defining issue for the Democratic Primary, the Democrats will look fundimentally unserious about the issues the voters really care about.

Finally, I would challenge any of the Democratic primary candidate supporters to point out a substantial issue that they have a different and unique position on that is not also shared by all of the other candidates. This is what is going to be needed to attract independent voters (other than those who actually have a crush on one candidate or another :)) It's called leadership, and it is useful to win hard fought elections.

x4mr said...

Just wanted to humbly suggest that it is feasible Willcox is the beginning of more to come as this election heats up.

Truth is that I don't know, but consider it reasonable to speculate that in decent numbers (FAR more than till now) folks are going to google candidate names for info.

Some will arrive at blogs including TDP.

I got here by a google search months ago.

If someone comes on here in a week and asks us to explain SB1065, what's gonna happen? I am criticizing no one (well, not yet), but will this produce another exchange of fresh vollies?

Please let's hope "shootouts" are not so easily triggered. Somewhat doubt Willcox is a troll, but it's quite possible.

I welcome intelligent debate and exchange of ideas and questions, for example those just posed by Framer.

Not sure what your story is, yoliescondida, but I am clear that I don't like it.

YoliEscondida said...

I'm one of Carmi's good friends and we are volunteering for Gabby. I hope you like that and I hope you keep an open mind regarding where you get your support. We need to stand up against the anti-Walmart crowd until this SB1065 vote is better understood. She is smart enough to vote for lower prices and that helps out poor people. We need cheap Chinese goods or our economy collapses on the balance of trade dollars the Chinese holds. And we then end up with a bunch of yen instead of dollars for our lifestyle. Walmart keeps the balance of dollars for both Iraq and our cheap merchandise, and that is what we are today.

Kralmajales said...
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Willcox Jim said...

Willcox is a town, not a troll. Most democrats in Willcox moved here to get away from the politics that east Tucson seems to promote.

Graf, Huffman, and Hellon are more in line with east Tucson than Willcox. I want to know for sure that our rural areas will be safe with either Ms. Giffords, Ms. Weiss, or Mr. Latas or Rodriguez. Sounds trollish asking for a complete voting record and some insight into Ms. Giffords' committee maneuvers, but you have patiently lectured me on where to find the condescension that you assume I need.

I thank you for your consideration, and I hope to see Ms. Giffords' complete record before September 12th. After that, it may be too late.

Kralmajales said...
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anonymous said...

Art-

Robert McNamera is a Rational Humanist terrorist and a logic bomber.

Rumsfeld is an irrational corporate terrorist and an illogical bomber.

All cigarette smokers are Suicide Reasoners, and anyone who works at Raytheon is a logic bomber, who once killed commies for mommy, but now deliver ordnance for the Good Lordnance of Armegeddon. The millenialists have arrived and its not a rational time for either terrorists nor Raytheon.

x4mr said...

Wow, anonymous. What a comment. Almost occurs as poetry. Thanks.

Willcox, use two names and I cut to the first. People get it, as did you, and I said I doubted you were a troll, but I bet some are headed this way. You have been very well treated at TDP and have no cause to be offended.

I've had entirely too much to drink to address anyone associated with Carmi.

sirocco said...

Boohoo said:

"It was the interest of 1470 that brought SB1065 forward. Manny Alverez is who pushed for employers of companies of more than 100 to remburse Arizona for the use of state funded medical expenses in the state house."


This seems factually incorrect to me, as the SB1470 bill was brough up a year _after_ SB1065. On the other hand, I am not entirely clear as to what you are trying to say.

Yolie, I suspect you don't know Carmi other than thhrough these boards, and I further suspect you are no friend of the Giffords campaign.

Kralmajales said...
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Framer said...

Roger,

I wasn't interested in debating tax policy (we can do that after the primary), I was just pointing out that there are certain issue gains that are easily nullified by other positions that the candidate has.

I have yet to see any of the candidates take a tough love approach to raising taxes on everyone for the overall good of the country, which I would not agree with, but would respect. Mostly what I have seen is a stab at "we will raise taxes for the rich, corporations, oil companies, everyone else but my loyal supporters." Color me not impressed with the latter approach as it is fundementally dishonest on several levels.

The tax cuts were and still are extremely popular. I'm not so much sure that cancelling the tax cuts is a matter of sound policy as much as it is an attempt to erase Bush's legacy.

Also from the above comments, please add Raytheon to Walmart as public enemy number 1 and 1-A as a threat to Distrct 8. That will certainly help gather votes.

Switching gears, although public opinion on the war is quite rough right now, a "get out now" mentality will effectively erase any points a candidate would gain on the issue. To take it further, a Democratic candidate could actually own the issue by criticizing the war effort while creating a feasible plan for the coming Iranian crisis. I'm not holding my breath on that though.

And finally, I am still waiting to see a serious issue where one candidate has staked out a unique leadership position. What I am seeing is Patty and Gabby attempting to run out the clock on the other candidates while sparring on minor issues and adopting relatively similar positions on just about everything. This effectively makes it a campign about Patty's name recognition against Gabby's endorsements and money.

Unless someone can show me the real issues that they are debating.

x4mr said...

Concur, Sirocco, that Yolie is not as claimed in any respect, and this points to some of the game theory discussed in the past.

Will have to try the Casa Molina margarita, but the bar is high. So far nothing can even approximate: Cross border into Nogales. At first intersection turn right. Go three or four blocks. On left will be a white hotel. First floor is a well lit restaurant next to a dimly lit bar with black furniture and big screen tv featuring american sports.

The margaritas come in small champagne glasses. There will be salt residue at the bottom, and these things are not kidding.

Actually, Framer, I think your thoughts on the Dem primary and "staking out" are rather sound in a certain respect. I assume you have read the websites. That is what they wish to say at this time, and frankly I hope they can select a nominee with as little carnage as possible. At risk of appearing irreverent, I don't care if G and P duke it out over the best margarita.

Starting 9/13, all this changes.

It's your party that has a real dilemma. Do you take Graf and what that means? Or should it be Huffman, which means something VERY different. Obviously my radar has its limitations, especially on your turf, but Hellon just isn't showing up. You can say better than me about that.

Kralmajales said...
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Framer said...

Actually, in many if not most areas, Huffman and Graf are pretty far apart. The bonus to this is that the winner of the Primary will be closer to what the public is looking for.

If all of the candidates closely resemble one another, there is a bigger danger of sitting in an echo chamber and being rudely surprised come the general (Walmart is evil for instance). Just for an example let's say that one of the candidates came out and wanted to make a $10 minimum wage. That is pretty far out there, but if it resonated, that person would probably win the primary and have a leg up in the general. However, no one will do that because it involves risk.

Randy Graf is called a xenophobe racist every day for his position on the border. He is taking a risk. Steve Huffman is a pro-choice Republican that favors what many would consider amnesty. He also is taking a risk. Those risks are going to cost one (or perhaps both)of them the Primary. However, it will also propel them into the General with confidence and momentum should they win as they will be better mirroring what the electorate desires.

As for Hellon, he has actually played his cards almost perfectly with the hand he was dealt post Kolbe endorsement. His actual politics closely mirror Huffman almost exactly, but he has positioned himself between Huffman and Graf very effectively and is set to capitalize of any negative Huffman-Graf negative warfare. I would still be shocked if he wins, but will not be surprised at all if he comes in second. He needs help from either a Huffman or Graf implosion, but he is still very much in the game.

Maybe I will do a better job of thinking this out and actually add a post to my own site soon. I have been very lazy in that regard.

wearetribal said...

Yolie, you do not know me. But now I know you, you are a dirty tricks person with a campaign, other than Giffords.

What you write in no way reflects my position, or Gifford's position.

Sirocco is right. If you know me...go ahead and describe me...

x4mr said...

Framer,

Thanks. You bring up ideas I hadn't considered, the first being an out of F blue implosion of some kind. This could occur to anyone, and rumors of skeletons are out there. There is also the rumored hit piece (know anything about the $14K, or more accurately, anything you are willing to share?).

The other notion you raise is a brutal Graf / Huffman exchange that makes G and P look tame. These guys are not pals, and this possibility is real. Hellon could emerge as the "sane" alternative with the "best elements" of the other two. Hmmm. Any Forum or other organized exchanges coming up between these guys? Must say this is certainly an interesting election.

Not sure what use of multiple names accomplishes. We are already anonymous. I suppose I could post a comment and then with a second name add a second comment on how brilliant my first comment was. Then a third could arrive with additional support.

Why stop there? Maybe Art has created all of us!!

If I tried to post with multiple names it would be painfully transparent at once.

Wouldn't want to suggest that is the case with anyone else.

x4mr said...

Forgot that I knew about the NFIB Forum this Wednesday. Both sides are invited, but this is more republican turf. Weiss, Latas, and Graf have it listed on their websites, but I would speculate most of the field is going.

anonymous said...

Check this one out. If yoli and kralmajales are parodies, then the parody is about defending Gabby and Walmart with the flimsiest leaps of faith.

It is not easy defending the death of SB1065, aka Rip Wilson's Walmart Vote;

Or the non clean candidate who supports Clean Elections but would never run on public money, because she wants to save traffic ticket revenue for the state.

And Gabby's near dismal poll numbers make the parody more than stark. Carmi, Kralmajales, and Yoli make the same arguments with the same devastating results:

Gabby is a parody created by her blogging fans. The real Gabrielle Giffords is lost somewhere in the white pixels of doubt.

wearetribal said...

I think it is clear to all honest people that Yoli does not in any way make the same arguments that I do, or that Kralmajales does.

I also think it is clear that Yoli is not a Giffords supporter, or an honest person.

And from this post we can readily conclude the same about the integrity of anonymous.

Given a choice between a candidate who voted against a questionable bill that would have resulted, if they wanted to or felt like it, in Wal-Mart paying some money to the state, and a candidate whose plan is to make retired, disabled, and desperately poor people pay for their own health insurance, as Weiss does...I do not think it is a tough choice.

Kralmajales said...
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x4mr said...

Are you the same anon that posted the poem? Who do you think should win CD 8? Who do you think CAN win CD 8?

Not following the parody thing at all.

Roger--Had that margarita. Spoke with them about it. Casa Molina uses no artificial mixes or sugar or 7-Up (more restaurants do this than one would think). They use premium tequila and triple sec, and pure lime juice. Fabulous.

But NOT what I am talking about in Nogales. They are worth the drive.

Give the wife money to shop while you're at the bar, and then have her drive you back.

anonymous said...

Getting back on topic:

Is the Giffords ad helping or not?

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Willcox Jim said...

There is another clip on the Willcox forum that has more of Jeff Latas and Gabrielle than the first one. Different camera angle, too.

I honestly think we need more issues and positions on this blog and less nonsense.

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x4mr said...

A fabulous margarita is anything but nonsense.

Huffman and Weiss signs have sprouted up all over town. Where is this new Willcox clip posted?

Got you don't like Giffords, anon. Who do you like?

x4mr said...

Found Willcox Redux.

Must come from the Latas camp, since the earlier post from the Weiss camp cut Jeff out.

I found the focus on Giffords interesting.

Not sure about others, but I think things are getting clearer and clearer.

Willcox Jim said...

I like Latas, and I wish he was more electable. Out here he is as unknown as Ms. Giffords without her money.

Ms. Giffords seems to draw more heat than support among people who either know her, or know of her.

Ms. Weiss has broad appeal, a smart looking campaign, and lots of similar positions to Latas.

As they say in Cochise County, Alex Rodriguez has a future in the party. Which is short hand for saying they like him but will vote for someone else.

I like them all for different things, but I am leaning towards the progressive wing, and that is away from Giffords at the present time. There may be political miracles (like Ohio and Mexico) but I don't see one coming to Ms. Giffords rescue, if the current ad is an indication of what she stands for.

Willcox Jim said...

Why do I write of Ms. Giffords or Gabrielle instead of Gabby?

I'm old enough to remember Gabby Hayes, riding shotgun to John Wayne as he mucked out the old West.

For thousands of us, the name Gabby conjures an image of an old cuss with a thick beard. Hard to forget...

anonymous said...

If this was a coronation, (like say back in February), then all bets would be on Gabby.

But this is a primary and most bets are on Weiss, not Gabby.

I know, this is my opinion, but the canvassing and polls back it up as of Friday.

Gabby's ad has the force of a wet firecracker. I learned that if you approve of this message then change can't wait.

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wearetribal said...

Anonymous, you claim most bets are on Weiss. Let us be honest here, people. Endorsements by all those groups and unions represents a bet by them that Giffords is going to win. No matter how much they like a candidate and their views, they also strongly consider what the odds are that the candidate will win.

Group after group and union after union are deciding that Giffords has the best chance of winning.

A few individuals are going for Weiss. I am not a professional gambler, but it is pretty clear the the vast majority of bets being made are on Giffords.

I was out on the streets for Giffords last night. I met as many people who felt compelled to tell me how much they disliked Weiss as who supported her. And there were three times that in Giffords supporters. For the third time I met someone who said she had known Weiss for years, and she would not vote for her under any circumstance.

On the other hand, people who have met Giffords seem to uniformly support her, except for that one blogger here. But jilted lovers should not count.

Who is ahead is clear even just from the behavior of the campaigns. It is obvious that Weiss is already launching desperate mud attacks, has been for weeks. Not what a campaign that is ahead does. It is what a campaign in trouble does, on the other hand.

Plenty of people know Weiss around here. The notably underwhelming support for her candidacy should tell us what we need to know.

x4mr said...

Not sure who you mean by the "one blogger" and stilted lover.

There seems to be a certain slowdown of some kind. Is this the calm before the storm, or are certain campaign bloggers wearing out? Efforts at kos by CD 8 campaigns have completely died. More accurately, efforts by Weiss and Latas campaigns.

Read your latest post, Art. Still processing.

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Dogma said...

Wearetribal,

Very nice post… I have also noticed a substantial drop off of Gabby bashers, of whatever strip of late... It seems to me that the tipping point was two weeks ago when 2nd quarter fund raising totals were announced. Weiss’ numbers were surprisingly weak for someone with as much supposed name recognition.

The writing is on the wall…

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Framer said...

I can guarantee that most if not all of those guys weren't Republicans.

I would guess that some of these posters have drifted off to Lamont-Leiberman discussion boards and forums where a great portion of the self-identified "anti-establishment libs" have moved, at least at this time.

They probably smell a larger chance of "victory" there.

It even has an Anti Walmart angle to it as well. That should reel them in.

anonymous said...

The Republicans and the NFIB business types have essentially written off Gabby as a viable candidate. This comes after reviewing polls, and her no show at the NFIB forum Wednesday night.

Pima County internal polls show her numbers going nowhwere or down. She is infuriating some of her staunchest supporters with this now-you-see-it, now you don't campaign. The Republicans have similar numbers and they see Patty Weiss as the candidate they will have for the General Election. They have begun talking openly about this and it is affecting the fundraising of both Huffman and Graf.

And the commercials are less than what they appear to be, when it comes to making Gabby more popular than That Other Woman.

This incestuous blogging among Gabby's staff and volunteers has created an echo chamber that feeds off of.... Gabby.

Gabby has no presence outside of East Tucson.

Why mess with a mess? Time to win the primary and send Gabby back to urban planning and real estate consultanting.

cc burro said...

Huffman has no presence even in his own LD.

When he's on television or ads, he also has no presence.

His website issues section is shorter than a radio commercial and anemic. He talks about supporting tax cuts. Is he going to support MORE tax cuts, with his party responsible adding $2 trillion to the national debt since 2000?

His backers' money will definitely help market the product, but you still have to get the public to buy the product.

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outlander said...

Believe it or not, some people do not like Gabby Giffords.

These people actually know her personally.

Andrew Myers and Patty have replied to your question regarding Mr. Diamond's support (Stand Up and Be Counted) and there are lots of people reconsidering their support for both Huffman and Giffords. They were both anointed by the establishment and they are both lurching towards a primary loss.

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outlander said...

The polls show Gabby losing.

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