The Giffords camp launches a major media campaign today. The first TV ad is available on the Giffords web site. (link)
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Jeff Latas’s financial report has been posted on the FEC site and shows cash on hand of a tad more than $20,000. Of course the FEC report covers only up to June 30th and we can reasonably expect that fund raising continues, but it compares to Giffords’s $588,000 and Weiss’s nearly $145,000. Even conservative Democrat Bill Johnson reports fifty grand. (His own money in the campaign.)
Latas is a determined candidate and his supporters are both energetic and devoted. Jeff is not likely to throw in the towel and that’s what makes this campaign an interesting test: Can a net-roots campaign and shoe leather make up for under funding?...or is the concept of under-funding simply too last century for words.
If Latas wins the primary he will face a serious financial challenge from his Republican opponent.
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There have been several news stories lately about the importance of the CD 8 race, as evidenced by the fact that the national Democratic Party has reserved 8 weeks of media time for the general election campaign.
The operative word here is “reserved.” The time was not bought and banked, to be parceled out for the benefit of the Democratic primary winner. Whoever that is will still have to buy his, or her, own time.
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A short note on the war on terror and terror's war on us.Oh, I know the chaos seems healthy but there are still people who are not doing their part. Where are the Rational Humanist terrorists? Why are there no Suicide Reasoners or Logic Bombers?
23 comments:
As for secular humanist terrorists you've got This guy and some other dude for starters.
Compared to these guys, today's terrorists are just pikers.
Whoever wins the CD8 primary is not going to have a problem with fundraising. That is the least of our worries.
As for what is going on in the world, it is as though we have lost our collective mind. If we (the US) support the idea that a nation's vital infrastructure and its civilians are legitimate targets, then we are not only violating Geneva Conventions but we have crossed a moral line from which there is no return, at least not anytime soon. In the past we have always at least tried to frame civilian deaths and casualties as collateral damage, but something has changed. Our government's enthusiastic support for the destruction of Lebanon is one of the lowest moral moments I can remember. The Democrats, of course, have fallen in line to support the whole thing, never sure exactly what position to take because their main concern is getting re-elected. This is just a replay of their support for the invasion of Iraq.
I am totally convinced that if there is a way to wrench a defeat from the jaws of victory in 2008, the Democrats will find it.
As You Like It...
I seriously doubt that the Giffords Campaign is going to spend 500 Grand on TV. Even if it did that would leave untouched whatever funding was escrowed for the general election.
The slightly paranoid idea that Grijalva has ordered people not to donate to other campaigns strikes me, quite frankly, as loony. Latas supporters would simply tell Raul to go to hell.
If Jeff had any supporters with money in the wings, just waiting til the moment's right, I would have thought they might have been lending a hand in the primary.
All we can do is see how it plays out.
We certainly live in interesting times.
If we're going to vote for candidates based on their fundraising organizations then Hillary wins in 2008, no contest. If that happens I'm going to take a hard look at the Libertarian.
As for CD8, I think we should expect something very similar to CA-CD50, Randy "Duke" Cunningham's district. In this Congressional district, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 55,000. Based on reports filed at the end of April, Francine Busby had raised almost four times as much money as Brian Bilbray. However, the NRCC infused around 4.5 million as well as about 200 "volunteers" into Bilbray's campaign. They had an anti-immigration message focused on anti-amnesty and pro-wall and managed to win the election. The Democrats also infused somewhere close to 2 million into Busby's campaign but apparently their anti-corruption message didn't resonate with voters as well as anti-immigration.
Democrats spin this as not so bad because the Republicans paid dearly and won narrowly. Well, they did win and now Bilbray will be an incumbent in November when they face off again. Bilbray will undoubtedly win.
Well, the CD8 General election will most likely mirror what happened in CD50. The Republicans will infuse millions of dollars and hammer away at their anti-immigration message. What worked in CD50 could work just as well in CD8 given the demographics and the proximity to the Mexican border. The biggest unknown, of course, is voter turnout which is much higher for General elections.
No matter how you look at this, the Democrats have to step up for whoever the candidate is and I just hope they are prepared. I think the candidate is going to need about 3 million, at least.
Kralmajales,
I'm not talking about the candidates raising the money the hard way. None of them can do it, not even Giffords. I'm talking about a direct infusion of cash from national party resources just like what happened in CD50.
I didn't compare Giffords to Hillary. I said that we cannot vote for candidates based on their fundraising organizations. There's no way to logically take that statement to infer anything Giffords' positions on abortion or the Iraq war or anything else.
CD50 is very troubling, or at least it should be. Democratic positions such as universal health care, anti-corruption, end the war in Iraq (take your pick) do not seem to be able to trump the single threaded anti-immigration message of the border state Republicans.
So, assuming Giffords wins the primary, what exactly is the winning srtategy going to be in this basically conservative district? What will the focus be? A broad range of issues to demonstrate her broad appeal? It won't work.
Apparently, the Republicans were immensely pleased that the CD50 voters did not hold the transgressions of one Republican against Republicans in general. "Duke" was such a flagrant crook that he could almost pass as an aberration. In CD8, voters will see a clean slate more or less because none of these candidates have served in Congress. So, conservatives who are fed up with the Bush Administration are not necessarily going to hold anything against these fresh, new Republican candidates.
I'm not pleased to be saying any of this, but I really fear that another anti-immigration, single issue campaign could win this district. I would like to think that voters would consider multiple issues, but they tend not to. The average voter will take the path of least resistance, the one demanding the least analysis.
Kralmajales, everyone here already knows you're in love with Giffords, we just don't talk about it.
Willcox,
For a better understanding of what is going on with this bill, it is thoroughly discussed
here.
Liza,
As always your remarks are well thought out but IMHO CD 8 has become its own animal and I am skeptical of comparisons to other races. Not really sure the CD50 dynamics apply. Maybe to a little extent.
To meaningfully discuss the final outcome, must state which individuals emerge on 9/12.
We are talking night and day the difference between facing Huffman and facing Graf, regardless of D nominee. As far as I am concerned, those are two different elections.
Brief remark on the ads. Giffords ad really surprised me. It is amazingly "light."
Hellon's is "heavy." Huffman's is in between.
I'm still pondering, and I am not saying heavy is good and light is bad or vice versa, but they have me thinking.
Giffords half a minute leaves me with the strongest sense of "having met her." Huffman says a little more about his issues, and Hellon has me wondering when to suit up and head south to join the fight.
yoliescondida,
Wal-Mart sucks. Anyone who buys their clothes or linens at Wal-Mart does not know how to shop. I wear Liz Claiborne and other designer brands and I bet I spend less money than people who buy clothes at Wal-mart. The same is true for linens. Better quality is available at better prices for those who know how to shop.
Everyone else,
Sorry for the above diversion from the subject but I can't sit here and allow anyone to extoll the virtues of Wal-Mart. They sell a lot of crap. Enough said.
kralmajales, sirocco, x4mr,
I hope I'm wrong but I think its going to be an uphill battle in the CD8 general election to get voters to think past immigration as the pivotal issue. In the Democratic primary, voters will definitely pay attention to Iraq, the Mideast, deficit spending, universal health care, etc... because those are the concerns of Democrats. I'm not convinced that any of those will trump immigration. I hope that I'm wrong and that my Republican dominated precinct is the reason for my flawed analysis.
Yes, anti-corruption did get some traction in CD50 but not enough to win, amazingly enough. How corrupt does your representative need to be for you entertain the idea of giving the other party a chance? Bilbray himself said that his victory proves that the voters believe that 12 million immigrants are a bigger problem than one crook in the House of Representatives.
Republicans may not be able to spend as much in CD8 as they did in CD50, but I have to believe that they see similarities in the two districts and will employ the same strategy. Realistically, what else have they got? Stay the course in Iraq, bomb Iran, privatize social security, do nothing about health care, keep the minimum wage at $5.15/hr, repeal the estate tax, think of more tax cuts for the wealthy. Really, what else have they got except immigration and the money to ram it down everyone's throat.
I hope I'm wrong.
Roger,
Trying to keep an objective hat on, but don't you think that any hope of getting pro-business Republican types to cross over and vote Democrat for cheaper labor is virtually neutralized by the promise of every Democratic candidate to raise their taxes.?
You can call it "rolling back the tax cuts" or "making everyone pay their fair share" but the reality is that these guys are going to pay a lot more in taxes should the Democrats take control. This is far more of a certainty than the sending home of every illegal alien without some sort of guest worker plan.
Everybody that owns a business, even the extremely small ones will get hit with more taxes should the tax cuts be rolled back. Every investor, and just about everyone that pays taxes. If a candidate says that only the rich will pay more, they better be prepared to draw that line between rich and poor. Otherwise, the middle class will assume that they are not poor and are going to get hit.
And again on the Walmart thing. A great portion of the voters shop at Walmart, and actually like Walmart. If this continues to be the defining issue for the Democratic Primary, the Democrats will look fundimentally unserious about the issues the voters really care about.
Finally, I would challenge any of the Democratic primary candidate supporters to point out a substantial issue that they have a different and unique position on that is not also shared by all of the other candidates. This is what is going to be needed to attract independent voters (other than those who actually have a crush on one candidate or another :)) It's called leadership, and it is useful to win hard fought elections.
Just wanted to humbly suggest that it is feasible Willcox is the beginning of more to come as this election heats up.
Truth is that I don't know, but consider it reasonable to speculate that in decent numbers (FAR more than till now) folks are going to google candidate names for info.
Some will arrive at blogs including TDP.
I got here by a google search months ago.
If someone comes on here in a week and asks us to explain SB1065, what's gonna happen? I am criticizing no one (well, not yet), but will this produce another exchange of fresh vollies?
Please let's hope "shootouts" are not so easily triggered. Somewhat doubt Willcox is a troll, but it's quite possible.
I welcome intelligent debate and exchange of ideas and questions, for example those just posed by Framer.
Not sure what your story is, yoliescondida, but I am clear that I don't like it.
Wow, anonymous. What a comment. Almost occurs as poetry. Thanks.
Willcox, use two names and I cut to the first. People get it, as did you, and I said I doubted you were a troll, but I bet some are headed this way. You have been very well treated at TDP and have no cause to be offended.
I've had entirely too much to drink to address anyone associated with Carmi.
Roger,
I wasn't interested in debating tax policy (we can do that after the primary), I was just pointing out that there are certain issue gains that are easily nullified by other positions that the candidate has.
I have yet to see any of the candidates take a tough love approach to raising taxes on everyone for the overall good of the country, which I would not agree with, but would respect. Mostly what I have seen is a stab at "we will raise taxes for the rich, corporations, oil companies, everyone else but my loyal supporters." Color me not impressed with the latter approach as it is fundementally dishonest on several levels.
The tax cuts were and still are extremely popular. I'm not so much sure that cancelling the tax cuts is a matter of sound policy as much as it is an attempt to erase Bush's legacy.
Also from the above comments, please add Raytheon to Walmart as public enemy number 1 and 1-A as a threat to Distrct 8. That will certainly help gather votes.
Switching gears, although public opinion on the war is quite rough right now, a "get out now" mentality will effectively erase any points a candidate would gain on the issue. To take it further, a Democratic candidate could actually own the issue by criticizing the war effort while creating a feasible plan for the coming Iranian crisis. I'm not holding my breath on that though.
And finally, I am still waiting to see a serious issue where one candidate has staked out a unique leadership position. What I am seeing is Patty and Gabby attempting to run out the clock on the other candidates while sparring on minor issues and adopting relatively similar positions on just about everything. This effectively makes it a campign about Patty's name recognition against Gabby's endorsements and money.
Unless someone can show me the real issues that they are debating.
Concur, Sirocco, that Yolie is not as claimed in any respect, and this points to some of the game theory discussed in the past.
Will have to try the Casa Molina margarita, but the bar is high. So far nothing can even approximate: Cross border into Nogales. At first intersection turn right. Go three or four blocks. On left will be a white hotel. First floor is a well lit restaurant next to a dimly lit bar with black furniture and big screen tv featuring american sports.
The margaritas come in small champagne glasses. There will be salt residue at the bottom, and these things are not kidding.
Actually, Framer, I think your thoughts on the Dem primary and "staking out" are rather sound in a certain respect. I assume you have read the websites. That is what they wish to say at this time, and frankly I hope they can select a nominee with as little carnage as possible. At risk of appearing irreverent, I don't care if G and P duke it out over the best margarita.
Starting 9/13, all this changes.
It's your party that has a real dilemma. Do you take Graf and what that means? Or should it be Huffman, which means something VERY different. Obviously my radar has its limitations, especially on your turf, but Hellon just isn't showing up. You can say better than me about that.
Actually, in many if not most areas, Huffman and Graf are pretty far apart. The bonus to this is that the winner of the Primary will be closer to what the public is looking for.
If all of the candidates closely resemble one another, there is a bigger danger of sitting in an echo chamber and being rudely surprised come the general (Walmart is evil for instance). Just for an example let's say that one of the candidates came out and wanted to make a $10 minimum wage. That is pretty far out there, but if it resonated, that person would probably win the primary and have a leg up in the general. However, no one will do that because it involves risk.
Randy Graf is called a xenophobe racist every day for his position on the border. He is taking a risk. Steve Huffman is a pro-choice Republican that favors what many would consider amnesty. He also is taking a risk. Those risks are going to cost one (or perhaps both)of them the Primary. However, it will also propel them into the General with confidence and momentum should they win as they will be better mirroring what the electorate desires.
As for Hellon, he has actually played his cards almost perfectly with the hand he was dealt post Kolbe endorsement. His actual politics closely mirror Huffman almost exactly, but he has positioned himself between Huffman and Graf very effectively and is set to capitalize of any negative Huffman-Graf negative warfare. I would still be shocked if he wins, but will not be surprised at all if he comes in second. He needs help from either a Huffman or Graf implosion, but he is still very much in the game.
Maybe I will do a better job of thinking this out and actually add a post to my own site soon. I have been very lazy in that regard.
Yolie, you do not know me. But now I know you, you are a dirty tricks person with a campaign, other than Giffords.
What you write in no way reflects my position, or Gifford's position.
Sirocco is right. If you know me...go ahead and describe me...
Framer,
Thanks. You bring up ideas I hadn't considered, the first being an out of F blue implosion of some kind. This could occur to anyone, and rumors of skeletons are out there. There is also the rumored hit piece (know anything about the $14K, or more accurately, anything you are willing to share?).
The other notion you raise is a brutal Graf / Huffman exchange that makes G and P look tame. These guys are not pals, and this possibility is real. Hellon could emerge as the "sane" alternative with the "best elements" of the other two. Hmmm. Any Forum or other organized exchanges coming up between these guys? Must say this is certainly an interesting election.
Not sure what use of multiple names accomplishes. We are already anonymous. I suppose I could post a comment and then with a second name add a second comment on how brilliant my first comment was. Then a third could arrive with additional support.
Why stop there? Maybe Art has created all of us!!
If I tried to post with multiple names it would be painfully transparent at once.
Wouldn't want to suggest that is the case with anyone else.
Forgot that I knew about the NFIB Forum this Wednesday. Both sides are invited, but this is more republican turf. Weiss, Latas, and Graf have it listed on their websites, but I would speculate most of the field is going.
I think it is clear to all honest people that Yoli does not in any way make the same arguments that I do, or that Kralmajales does.
I also think it is clear that Yoli is not a Giffords supporter, or an honest person.
And from this post we can readily conclude the same about the integrity of anonymous.
Given a choice between a candidate who voted against a questionable bill that would have resulted, if they wanted to or felt like it, in Wal-Mart paying some money to the state, and a candidate whose plan is to make retired, disabled, and desperately poor people pay for their own health insurance, as Weiss does...I do not think it is a tough choice.
Are you the same anon that posted the poem? Who do you think should win CD 8? Who do you think CAN win CD 8?
Not following the parody thing at all.
Roger--Had that margarita. Spoke with them about it. Casa Molina uses no artificial mixes or sugar or 7-Up (more restaurants do this than one would think). They use premium tequila and triple sec, and pure lime juice. Fabulous.
But NOT what I am talking about in Nogales. They are worth the drive.
Give the wife money to shop while you're at the bar, and then have her drive you back.
A fabulous margarita is anything but nonsense.
Huffman and Weiss signs have sprouted up all over town. Where is this new Willcox clip posted?
Got you don't like Giffords, anon. Who do you like?
Found Willcox Redux.
Must come from the Latas camp, since the earlier post from the Weiss camp cut Jeff out.
I found the focus on Giffords interesting.
Not sure about others, but I think things are getting clearer and clearer.
Anonymous, you claim most bets are on Weiss. Let us be honest here, people. Endorsements by all those groups and unions represents a bet by them that Giffords is going to win. No matter how much they like a candidate and their views, they also strongly consider what the odds are that the candidate will win.
Group after group and union after union are deciding that Giffords has the best chance of winning.
A few individuals are going for Weiss. I am not a professional gambler, but it is pretty clear the the vast majority of bets being made are on Giffords.
I was out on the streets for Giffords last night. I met as many people who felt compelled to tell me how much they disliked Weiss as who supported her. And there were three times that in Giffords supporters. For the third time I met someone who said she had known Weiss for years, and she would not vote for her under any circumstance.
On the other hand, people who have met Giffords seem to uniformly support her, except for that one blogger here. But jilted lovers should not count.
Who is ahead is clear even just from the behavior of the campaigns. It is obvious that Weiss is already launching desperate mud attacks, has been for weeks. Not what a campaign that is ahead does. It is what a campaign in trouble does, on the other hand.
Plenty of people know Weiss around here. The notably underwhelming support for her candidacy should tell us what we need to know.
Not sure who you mean by the "one blogger" and stilted lover.
There seems to be a certain slowdown of some kind. Is this the calm before the storm, or are certain campaign bloggers wearing out? Efforts at kos by CD 8 campaigns have completely died. More accurately, efforts by Weiss and Latas campaigns.
Read your latest post, Art. Still processing.
I can guarantee that most if not all of those guys weren't Republicans.
I would guess that some of these posters have drifted off to Lamont-Leiberman discussion boards and forums where a great portion of the self-identified "anti-establishment libs" have moved, at least at this time.
They probably smell a larger chance of "victory" there.
It even has an Anti Walmart angle to it as well. That should reel them in.
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