Monday, June 12, 2006

CD 8 Giffords Sets Petition Record

One of the classic rituals of every campaign is the delivery of nominating petitions to the Arizona Secretary of State. It’s a photo op and the chance to celebrate with your supporters. You hope for a little press coverage, which it’s unlikely you’ll get, and move on to the next stage of your campaign.

Giffords has turned in a record 7015 signatures, about three times the number of the next nearest candidate. Signatures were collected from every county in the Congressional District…Pima, Santa Cruz, Pinal, and Cochise. That she covered the District is not a fact that political junkies will find unusual, although the number of signatures certainly is.

What is worth noting, however, is the fact that signatures were collected from every one of the 345 precincts in the district. The campaign is surely going to argue that this is evidence of the breadth and depth of Gifford’s support. According to a campaign spokesman about 20% of those signatures were from high voting propensity Democratic voters, who they now hope to recruit to the campaign.

Whatever is made of these figures by her opponents it is hardly open to debate is that they are evidence of an extremely well organized, efficient, and far-reaching field organization. This is certain to be noted by players on the national scene who want to focus their support on those campaigns that promise the greatest success in re-capturing a House majority in Congress.

24 comments:

sirocco said...

Giffords started collecting signatures earlier, and turned them in later, than her primary opponents. She should have significantly more. Still an impressive number though.

I'd be curious to know what percentage of those signatures came from within the region she represented in the AZ House and Senate.

Art Jacobson said...

A correction is called for. A Giffords
press release gives a slightly lower
petition signature count:

"6,952 signatures sets the record for the largest amount turned in for a Congressional campaign in the CD-8 race this year. The amount represents over 20% of the votes cast in the last Democratic congressional primary in CD-8, and also more than triples the number turned in by her nearest competitor for the Democratic nomination."

Emersome Biggums said...

I know that her volunteers tried to get me and my daughter to sign. We both had sign another, but they insisted that it was OK to sign her too. I refused to accept their explaination that it was OK.

I wonder how many people sign hers after signing someone elses.

boohoo said...

Funny you mentioned this, Emersome, I was at the 4th Ave St. Fair (Dec) when the GG people were collecting signitures. I saw them get signitures from people outside of the district (CD-7) without even checking.

vetdem said...

I can smell the sour grapes already.

Emersome Biggums said...

I smell fraud.

vetdem said...

Those are some strong words.

I think Patty had a couple of thousand signatures which is significant too.

Anyone know what Latas is turning in?

anonymous said...

I SAY WE THE PEOPLE CHALLENGE THESE SIGNATURES!!

Sure, she hands down has enough signatures to be on the ballot (one would hope)… but if we get an accurate count of signatures of DEMOCRATS or I’s who live in CD8 and had not signed another petition on the date marked – then it will quiet down the kool-aid drinkers who are yacking about this BIG number.

Can you honestly answer me this: IS EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM LEGIT?

Perhaps this is why Gabby wanted to get so many signatures. She knew her volunteers would play dirty and get CD7 residents to sign, republicans as well as other candidate’s signers to sign.

I got approached numerous times by Gifford Supporters asking me to sign her petition. Not once did they ask if I lived in CD8, was a DEMOCRAT or republican or if I had already signed someone else's petition. I told them no thanks.....even after their persistence.

vetdem said...

I don't think you can anonymously challenge anything.

'Zona Dem said...

It seems to me like these numbers are pretty disappointing for the Giffords campaign.
Given that she has been planning to run for this seat longer than anyone else in the race, and started collecting signatures before almost any other candidate in the district, the fact that she didn't submit the maximum number of signatures allowed-- or even more!-- seems to signal unanticipated weakness in the Giffords camp.
I believe there had even been whispers among her people of 10,000 sigs being collected before they file... that certainly didn't pan out. It should prove very interesting to see how many of the signatures on her petitions belong to actual Democrats living in the district.

vetdem said...

3 times the signatures of the next nearest candidate disappointing????

I don't think so. A record numbers of signatures shows that she has the most grassroots support of any of the candidates.

She's doing very well!

Emersome Biggums said...

If you don't give a sh-t about who you sign, my calculation is that only about 1/3 are valid. That means she has about the same number as Patty.

sirocco said...

Leave the speculation alone, the official final tallies will give us numbers.

For the record, I know both Giffords and Weiss signature gatherers were approaching people without asking where they lived, their party affiliation or whether they had previously signed. Dunno about Latas.

Emersome Biggums said...

Unless there is a challenge, no one will know the real number of valid signatures, I think.

x4mr said...

Now I am laughing, anonymous.

Imagine my surprise that folks are griping about these signatures.

What stood out to me was that her campaign went to every single precinct.........

FEDUP said...

She had 3 more months than Weiss, started nearly 2 months earlier and turned in a month later, so you figure she should have about 3 times more, which she does.

Still, I gotta hand it to Giffords, brilliant marketing move. Having her breakfast party the same day to have enough people for the photo op and boasting the large number because she wasn't first. Tying the fundraising into the announcement was a classic Howard Dean move. Her campaign is doing something right.

She isn't my favorite candidate, but unless Weiss gets her campaign strategy together and Latas gets more visibility, Giffords will win this.

Unfortunately, she will lose the primary. She doesn't have the cross over appeal the other candidates do and it will be harder for her to gain credibility, especially with that Republican opposition research file growing daily. I'm not sure a slick ad campaign will be able to counter what the Republicans have planned. Graf in particular should not be underestimated. He will destroy her in a debate.

Does anyone know if Leister and Shacter got enough signatures to qualify? Isn't tomorrow the deadline?

FEDUP said...

Why is every precinct such a big deal? I don't think the other candidates sat and counted but am pretty sure they got every precinct too. Likely an attempt to try to make a mountain out of a mole hill for publicity sake. After 6 months she should have every precinct or something is seriously wrong. Especially with all her paid staff.

I hear an independent group is going to poll the CD8 race next month. Anyone else hear that? They are trying to use a large sample size and include independents, republicans and democrats to see how each candidate stacks up in the general.

FEDUP said...

Folks, this isn't fraud. I am sure that at least half those signatures are valid so as much as I criticize Giffords, she has plenty legit ones to get on the ballot.

Sometimes people forget who they signed for and staff or volunteers forget to ask about what district. That doesn't mean they are purposely trying to fraud. Give Giffords some slack on this one and give her campaign credit for making a non story into a big one and excellent fundraiser. Then go tell your candidate to start doing the same!

I would bet you will see the same person signing multiple ones because they forget who they signed for. Does anyone know which candidate can count those? The first or the last?

FEDUP said...

What I am wondering is, which of the 6 people in precinct 285 signed her petition?

sirocco said...

I believe Giffords had an extra two months than Weiss, not three, but as I initially noted, she still had considerably more time, no matter how you slice it.

I am not sure of the rules regarding signatures. My guess is, if someone signs multiple times, the one dated earliest gets the signature. I wouldn't think you can simply disqualify both, or candidates then have an incentive to get signatures of people who already signed for someone else.

Art Jacobson said...

Sirocco...

I believe the latest signature counts.

I imagine that the earliest anyone could start collecting signatures would be whenever the petition forms were ready. Setting that aside, Latas threw his hat in the ring before anyone else... his campaign's proud boast.

Don't know when he turned petitions in but the number of signatures was apparently nothing to boast about. Nothing on his web site, anyway.

Patty quit collecting a month before she had to, a fact I commented on earlier, thus winning a pointless race.

Emmersom... Everyone has a legal right to challenge signatures so the other campaigns may do that. It's probably a time waster, though.

One thing is certain, you won't challenge since you would then have to identify yourself.

To all commenters...thanks for writing.

'gards,
Art

sirocco said...

Really? The last one qualifies? That would give a campaign even more incentive to sign people who have already signed elsewhere, since they would get the signature _and_ take it off someone else's list (assuming they got the last signature of course).

This is really an academic exercise, since it looks like everyone filing easily clears the total needed ... be interesting to mail down the rule though.

Emersome Biggums said...

First signature counts, not last. Any signatures after the first are disqualified.

You're right Art, not worth the challenge. I'm sure she got the required signatures even when all the disqualifiers are out. But it would be interesting to see how many are valid. I would guess she has a ratio that is much less then the others.

Kralmajales said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.