The Arizona Daily Star poll shows Gabrielle Giffords handily beating retired anchorwoman Patty Weiss by 17 points, a figure that’s basically unchanged since the Tucson Weekly poll. This probably explains why Weiss has recently pumped her own money into the campaign…she needed to pay for the latest hit-piece mailing against Giffords.
A short quote from the Star report:
(Weiss) Campaign spokesman Andrew Myers said the campaign is betting on "occasional voters," those who did not vote in the 2004 primary but are enthused by the competitive race and Weiss' local celebrity status.
"I think the strategies of the campaigns have been very different," he said. "We know that we're going to live and die by occasional voters."
Provided those voters don't turn out, Weiss would need to claim 93 percent of the undecideds in order to win, which would be a rarity, pollster (Carol) Zimmerman said.
Read the entire Star report here.
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Still, everyone thought Dewey would beat Truman. It’s best to wait until the fat lady sings next Tuesday and for the Giffords campaign to keep its nose to the grindstone. Here's an odd thought: Perhaps, thanks to early voting, someone has already won.
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I caught the DCCC anti-Huffman ad on the tube yesterday. Does that mean Rahm Emanuel thinks Huffman would be the CD-8 Republican hardest to beat? Must be…and the Star poll would seem to indicate that. Yes, but which
Huffman, the middle-of-the-roader or the newly minted super conservative?
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Incidentally, there’s some very interesting commentary and debate going on over at Arizona 8th.
5 comments:
Well, go ahead a scold if you want, but lottery ticket odds are necessary for the democratic nomination to go different from current projection. I want to know where the party is Tuesday night.
Have gotten pretty good at making those margaritas, Art. What I think makes the biggest difference is 1) super fresh squeezed juice, 2) clean simple sugar, and 3) use of a shaker. An excellent drink.
What is fascinating is the Republican side of this thing. Looking back, I can now say that those ultra-confident Huffman people speaking to me must be those connected to Click's business folk who were convinced this thing would be easy.
Whoops.
It gets better. They were so confident they were talking about ability to fix blue side to face Weiss.
Somewhere in town there are some angry and embarrassed people. I wonder when it became apparent that things were starting to go wrong. Very wrong.
I consider it safe to say that no matter what happens, on 9/13 there are going to be some seething R's hungry for blood, and this bifurcation is not going to be easy to repair.
If Huffman prevails, I have already been told to my face of votes for Noland (L), just staying home, and one spoke of organizing R's for Giffords out of protest, and I'm not referring to a blogger that has also suggested this.
I think Graf prevailing, at this point, will give them a better shot. Graf can credibly say he "earned" the nomination, now with some sympathy support to boot after facing national assault.
I have flipped completely from my view of June, which was a nightmare if Giffords/Huffman and a not so tough Giffords win against Graf. Now I think Graf would be the tougher race, and perhaps shy of a nightmare, no walk in the park.
I've seen enough of the Giffords camp to know that these R antics won't take their eyes off the ball for a second.
Art, the DCCC is joining the pile atop Huffman because his bags of money and dirty tricks would bulge to overflowing in a general election. He would put into operation all of the expected GOP tactics in order to divide the electorate, play on their fears and then cynically exploit those divisions and concerns. I think this is a wise expenditure by the DCCC and it shows that Democrats have learned some hard lessons after years of being smacked around first by Gingrich and then by Rove.
I don't underestimate Graf...in the GOP primary. In a general election, his appeal will be limited. As the GOP nominee in the other Republican districts in this state, he would be a formidable opponent. In this area, there are places he simply can not win.
Upside down pictures of Bush will not be what voters care about in the general election. Graf's voting record in the Arizona House speaks to his ignorance of the pressing needs in this state. It will be simple to tie him to the skewed priorities of the leadership of BOTH the Arizona Legislature and the U.S. Congress because he is the poster boy for their unpopular and intolerant views.
Graf is also more likely to cause Republicans of certain stripes to bolt the party, much as Matt Salmon did four years ago versus Janet. The Star poll shows this fact and Southern Arizona is the last refuge of the moderates in this state. He will try to make the Democrat look like a blinkered leftist, but that will be impossible as we are likely to make the wise choice of backing Giffords. She is not someone who can be categorized so easily and she has shown a willingness to fight back when unfairly maligned.
Am I pointing out what everyone already knows when I call your attention to this Huffman piece?
Thanks, dogma. Glad to hear the call is positive. Weiss is hitting by mail, two pieces that are old news for bloggers like Walmart SB1065 and so on. A good description of one of them is at Stacy's, and the other is saying same stuff.
As I calm down about the fiasco on the red side of this race, I am flipping again. It's easy to get caught up in the drama of this thing.
Now my perspective is the following:
Graf cannot win. He just can't, even against Weiss, and the "smart" Republicans know this.
So they chose Huffman, and hindsight now suggests this was a serious F-up, because Hellon was right there as a very viable option.
But they chose Steve and threw him half a million or so and considered it done. Then Steve floundered and failed to deliver.
The luxury of sitting confident and playing with D primary bought the farm (except for $13K), and now they are scrambling like crazy to salvage Steve.
The wounds and rage left in the wake of a Huffman victory 9/12 will subside for 95% of population in less than two weeks, just in time for Rove to fly into town.
My nightmare has returned front and center: Huffman vs. Giffords and an ugly mess.
There are times I would love to be wrong. GO RANDY!!
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