Yes, PK, there are segments of the CD 8 electorate that will be seething against Giffords: fervent pro-lifers, fervent NRA supporters, other staunch right wing folks that can be seen in footage of some of the Graf events, guys that make statements like, "Money does not exist."
There are also segments of CD 8 electorate that will be seething against Graf: fervent pro-choice folks, strong labor union types, social welfare advocates of a certain vein, and so on.
As Graf (and I think Giffords) has said, this election offers a very clear choice for a fair number of voters whose decisions are already made.
I say nothing profound when I say victory will go to the candidate who appeals to those who can be swayed.
Overconfidence and complacency can torpedo either candidate. My personal opinion is that Giffords is in a significantly stronger position, but if her campaign were to relax and kick back, Graf has the campaigning skills and personal appeal to take this from her.
Would speculate that not only will Giffords campaign not kick back, but will in fact press the pedal even harder against the metal.
The pool of voters to reach just tripled. They know this.
dogma, I have seriously considered strapping a gun to my hip when I walk my dogs. There is always some a**hole in the neighborhood who thinks its okay for his/her dog to wander around off leash. My dogs and I were attacked in our own neighborhood by a very aggressive male chow who was loose in his yard. Also, one of my dogs was almost attacked by our neighborhood drug dealer's pit bull, but the guy was able to stop the dog in time. Don't tell me to buy pepper spray. I've had a few conversations with mail delivery people who told me it does not work as often as you would like it to.
So far, I haven't carried a gun but I can tell you that I had to stop walking my dogs together because I know I can only defend one of them. And that's only with certain dogs. If it's a pit bull attacking, then I'm dead meat as well as the dog.
It's all very interesting but I don't think this election is going to be about gun laws. And, getting back to the original post, I can't see what purpose is served by ridiculing Mr. Graf by drawing attention to his appearance on the "The Daily Show." This is not "good fun" as we all know. This is clearly an attempt to humiliate Mr. Graf. While it might be amusing to some, all it does is invite similar humiliation for Ms. Giffords. I would think that all of us would hope that this campaign won't be sinking to those levels. Perhaps we should rise above the temptation to do this kind of thing because the Republicans can give it back to us tenfold.
I think you can take it to the bank that no restraint is going to be exercised regarding the character assassination of Gabrielle Giffords. It is merely a matter of timing.
The only sequence of events that will spare us would be a remarkable implosion or meltdown that puts Graf so far ahead that his campaign and those behind it see such behavior as unnecessary. I put the odds of this at lottery ticket levels.
In the beginning, I anticipate Graf material to talk about immigration, immigration, immigration, taxes, and did I mention immigration?
Just as ballpark figures, we're talking 30% already locked and loaded for Graf, 30% already locked and loaded for Giffords, and 40% in the middle that truly make the choice.
As time gets shorter with polls and research showing Gabrielle ahead, R's will let the dogs out.
The gun issue matters, but mostly to those in the already loaded for Graf column. Blasting Giffords about gun control will not win this election.
And I was just getting ready to post something along the lines of how nice it is to see dogma and pk having an exchange of ideas without wacko assertions, and that if this is a reflection of what is coming, terrific.
Alas, it appears my holding back was for good reason.
We have a Republican and a Republican in this race.
Graf doesn't know how to run an underhanded, ruthless, behind-the-scenes stealth campaign like her. If he gets outside groups to do to Giffords what she did to Weiss, then the race will be his.
You’re kidding, Fedup, right?
What pray-tell, did Giffords do to Weiss? Facts, please.
And the part about Graf not knowing how to run a particular type of campaign is a belly buster. Graf flew to DC after his primary victory. You think they were discussing golf?
I stand by my earlier comment that each side is going to paint the other as extreme, especially the democrats alleging this about Graf, because he is, well, prime for such an allegation. Graf is going to hit hard, very hard, on immigration.
Anyone notice Scarpinato’s piece today on the black tie event for Kolbe where Huffman’s wife pledged "her entire family’s" support for Giffords?
That event was prior to the primary.
Perhaps, Fedup, you might consider that Huffman is a democrat.
Gun rights restrictions are the fourth rail for Democrats. People just don't trust them to protect the second ammendment. And in a lot of cases this is with good reason (see San Francisco). This issue is probably what ultimately cost Gore the White House in 2000, and he is not even a hard core gun grabber.
This will indeed be an issue in the CD-8 race, count on it. And it will favor Graf overall. A great number of local Democrats are pro-gun and Gabby's F rating is problematic for her.
If Gabby tries to make hay of Randy's gun law activism, that is a briar patch Randy would certainly welcome being thrown in.
Fedup, Your 1:44 PM post says it all. Who among us trusts the government to the extent that we would allow ourselves to be disarmed? Most of the news and op-eds that I read most definitely come from left leaning sources and I can tell you that I can't even remember the last time I saw anything about gun control. Americans will not allow themselves to be disarmed, it just isn't going to happen. Any Democratic candidate anywhere in the US who advocates gun control right now may as well concede the election and be done with it.
Let's be clear that there are two threads here, one about the election, and one about gun control.
Semantic guy that I am, what is "gun control"? Are you suggesting, Liza, that we sell them on street corners to eight year olds for thirty bucks?
Seems like everyone here likes their gun, and I am no exception. What I did with the 12 gauge that one post divorce afternoon in the junkyard will, well, remain in that junkyard. (Hint: discarded porcelain items are fabulous).
Not sure, Framer, that this will be a factor in CD 8 election. The joke about bars aside, I don't see it hurting Graf in CD 8. This is Southern Arizona and land of Tombstone, for crying out loud! I have a hard time thinking of someone who doesn't have a gun. I agree with you that it would be a mistake for Giffords to tangle with Graf on this one. Speculate she won't.
Have to say, folks, that immigration and taxes, Iraq and terrorism, health care and the national debt, just dwarf the gun thing.
Oh, and indeed, the NRA is definately someone you don't want on your political bad side. If I were Graf, I would get somebody on the campaign to make sure that he remains firmly on their radar, even if that is all they did.
x4mr, No, I do not advocate selling guns for $30.00 on street corners to eight year olds and I agree that "gun control" refers to a myriad of issues. I'm just saying that its a bad time to try make it an election issue. Who really wants to start explaining to the electorate how much "gun control" is good for them especially in Arizona? Most people support gun ownership and without putting too fine a point on it, they can easily get confused when politicians start talking about it. Democrats would be wise to let it fly under the radar.
You also say, "Have to say, folks, that immigration and taxes, Iraq and terrorism, health care and the national debt, just dwarf the gun thing."
I agree with you that this election will be about immigration because it already is. Please tell me the last time you remember Democrats getting to decide the issues. First, other than to rail on Bush for being such a f***-up, what are the Democrats going to say about Iraq or terrorism that they can all agree upon? What are they going to say about deficits? What are they going to say about health care? So far, its all about Bush being a liar and a fool. It's a good start, but people might be looking for some real policy solutions. In the absence of that, they'll just go back to immigrant bashing.
The Republicans have been yakking up the "immigration problem" for years on talk radio and its working for them right now. I've seen Kyl's TV ad about immigration. Why should he get a pass? If any Republican deserves to be voted out of office, its Jon Kyl.
So tell the Democrats how to trump the immigration issue. They need to know.
Excellent remarks, Liza. Will spare folks the long version, but we (self included) seem to be a lot better at bitching than providing solutions. I could write pages and pages about this.
Agree with you that if democrats think gun control is a good conversation at this time for CD 8, they should think again, and Graf should think long and hard before getting hot and bothered about abortion.
cc, while you are wishing for a ban on "extreme" and "radical" please include global warming and religious fanatacism just in case you get lucky.
Fedup's remarks aside, there will be efforts to cast Giffords as radical left.
The ads portraying Graf as extreme are already running.
Whoops. Hate it when I imply opposite of what I mean. Not suggesting a ban on discussing global warming or fanaticism. Meant to say that while you are wishing, cc, please resolve those problems as well.
randall holdridge, Voter turnout is usually a fair indicator of how concerned people are about the government. Pima County is way up there because 30.7% of registered voters dragged their sorry butts to the polls last Tuesday (or voted by mail.) However, in Maricopa County only 19.8% of them were able to make it. Statewide, a whopping 22.8% voted. This came from the AZ Secretary of State official website. Primary election turnout generally runs between 20% and 35% even in presidential year elections. This recent election shows we are on the lowest end of voter interest.
I would conclude that most voters don't exactly have a fire in their belly. Either that or they think voting is an exercise in futility.
20 comments:
Congratulatins, Art, I believe that you have cast the first stone.
Actually the Republicans have beaten me to the punch. There are anti-Giffords ads already running on two stations in Tucson.
Art,
Sorry, I thought you were first. Well, that's what I get restricting my TV viewing to FSTV, LINK, and HGTV.
I wouldn't try any golf jokes either. There's a lot of golfers in Southern Arizona.
Yes, PK, there are segments of the CD 8 electorate that will be seething against Giffords: fervent pro-lifers, fervent NRA supporters, other staunch right wing folks that can be seen in footage of some of the Graf events, guys that make statements like, "Money does not exist."
There are also segments of CD 8 electorate that will be seething against Graf: fervent pro-choice folks, strong labor union types, social welfare advocates of a certain vein, and so on.
As Graf (and I think Giffords) has said, this election offers a very clear choice for a fair number of voters whose decisions are already made.
I say nothing profound when I say victory will go to the candidate who appeals to those who can be swayed.
Overconfidence and complacency can torpedo either candidate. My personal opinion is that Giffords is in a significantly stronger position, but if her campaign were to relax and kick back, Graf has the campaigning skills and personal appeal to take this from her.
Would speculate that not only will Giffords campaign not kick back, but will in fact press the pedal even harder against the metal.
The pool of voters to reach just tripled. They know this.
dogma,
I have seriously considered strapping a gun to my hip when I walk my dogs. There is always some a**hole in the neighborhood who thinks its okay for his/her dog to wander around off leash. My dogs and I were attacked in our own neighborhood by a very aggressive male chow who was loose in his yard. Also, one of my dogs was almost attacked by our neighborhood drug dealer's pit bull, but the guy was able to stop the dog in time. Don't tell me to buy pepper spray. I've had a few conversations with mail delivery people who told me it does not work as often as you would like it to.
So far, I haven't carried a gun but I can tell you that I had to stop walking my dogs together because I know I can only defend one of them. And that's only with certain dogs. If it's a pit bull attacking, then I'm dead meat as well as the dog.
It's all very interesting but I don't think this election is going to be about gun laws. And, getting back to the original post, I can't see what purpose is served by ridiculing Mr. Graf by drawing attention to his appearance on the "The Daily Show." This is not "good fun" as we all know. This is clearly an attempt to humiliate Mr. Graf. While it might be amusing to some, all it does is invite similar humiliation for Ms. Giffords. I would think that all of us would hope that this campaign won't be sinking to those levels. Perhaps we should rise above the temptation to do this kind of thing because the Republicans can give it back to us tenfold.
Just my opinion...
Liza,
I think you can take it to the bank that no restraint is going to be exercised regarding the character assassination of Gabrielle Giffords. It is merely a matter of timing.
The only sequence of events that will spare us would be a remarkable implosion or meltdown that puts Graf so far ahead that his campaign and those behind it see such behavior as unnecessary. I put the odds of this at lottery ticket levels.
In the beginning, I anticipate Graf material to talk about immigration, immigration, immigration, taxes, and did I mention immigration?
Just as ballpark figures, we're talking 30% already locked and loaded for Graf, 30% already locked and loaded for Giffords, and 40% in the middle that truly make the choice.
As time gets shorter with polls and research showing Gabrielle ahead, R's will let the dogs out.
The gun issue matters, but mostly to those in the already loaded for Graf column. Blasting Giffords about gun control will not win this election.
They will do something else.
Yep, dogma, the new chapter has started, and it sounds like we are virtually on the same page.
Also saw that ad.
The allegation that Graf is extreme will draw return fire and soon.
Statements like "card carrying member of the ACLU" and then some of the difficult to swallow stances of the ACLU are predictable.
The Weiss campaign's notion that Giffords wasn't really progressive or liberal is toast.
The word extreme is a predictable buzzword on the horizon.
And I was just getting ready to post something along the lines of how nice it is to see dogma and pk having an exchange of ideas without wacko assertions, and that if this is a reflection of what is coming, terrific.
Alas, it appears my holding back was for good reason.
We have a Republican and a Republican in this race.
Graf doesn't know how to run an underhanded, ruthless, behind-the-scenes stealth campaign like her. If he gets outside groups to do to Giffords what she did to Weiss, then the race will be his.
You’re kidding, Fedup, right?
What pray-tell, did Giffords do to Weiss? Facts, please.
And the part about Graf not knowing how to run a particular type of campaign is a belly buster. Graf flew to DC after his primary victory. You think they were discussing golf?
I stand by my earlier comment that each side is going to paint the other as extreme, especially the democrats alleging this about Graf, because he is, well, prime for such an allegation. Graf is going to hit hard, very hard, on immigration.
Anyone notice Scarpinato’s piece today on the black tie event for Kolbe where Huffman’s wife pledged "her entire family’s" support for Giffords?
That event was prior to the primary.
Perhaps, Fedup, you might consider that Huffman is a democrat.
Just a few thoughts:
Gun rights restrictions are the fourth rail for Democrats. People just don't trust them to protect the second ammendment. And in a lot of cases this is with good reason (see San Francisco). This issue is probably what ultimately cost Gore the White House in 2000, and he is not even a hard core gun grabber.
This will indeed be an issue in the CD-8 race, count on it. And it will favor Graf overall. A great number of local Democrats are pro-gun and Gabby's F rating is problematic for her.
If Gabby tries to make hay of Randy's gun law activism, that is a briar patch Randy would certainly welcome being thrown in.
Fedup,
Your 1:44 PM post says it all. Who among us trusts the government to the extent that we would allow ourselves to be disarmed? Most of the news and op-eds that I read most definitely come from left leaning sources and I can tell you that I can't even remember the last time I saw anything about gun control. Americans will not allow themselves to be disarmed, it just isn't going to happen. Any Democratic candidate anywhere in the US who advocates gun control right now may as well concede the election and be done with it.
Let's be clear that there are two threads here, one about the election, and one about gun control.
Semantic guy that I am, what is "gun control"? Are you suggesting, Liza, that we sell them on street corners to eight year olds for thirty bucks?
Seems like everyone here likes their gun, and I am no exception. What I did with the 12 gauge that one post divorce afternoon in the junkyard will, well, remain in that junkyard. (Hint: discarded porcelain items are fabulous).
Not sure, Framer, that this will be a factor in CD 8 election. The joke about bars aside, I don't see it hurting Graf in CD 8. This is Southern Arizona and land of Tombstone, for crying out loud! I have a hard time thinking of someone who doesn't have a gun. I agree with you that it would be a mistake for Giffords to tangle with Graf on this one. Speculate she won't.
Have to say, folks, that immigration and taxes, Iraq and terrorism, health care and the national debt, just dwarf the gun thing.
phx_kid
DId you not notice that yesterday was perhaps the greatest College football Saturday that we are going to probably have in a decade?
It was bad enough that we let the Star and Sonoran Alliance scoop us with the Graf airport thing.
We'll be back tomorrow.
Oh, and indeed, the NRA is definately someone you don't want on your political bad side. If I were Graf, I would get somebody on the campaign to make sure that he remains firmly on their radar, even if that is all they did.
x4mr,
No, I do not advocate selling guns for $30.00 on street corners to eight year olds and I agree that "gun control" refers to a myriad of issues. I'm just saying that its a bad time to try make it an election issue. Who really wants to start explaining to the electorate how much "gun control" is good for them especially in Arizona? Most people support gun ownership and without putting too fine a point on it, they can easily get confused when politicians start talking about it.
Democrats would be wise to let it fly under the radar.
You also say, "Have to say, folks, that immigration and taxes, Iraq and terrorism, health care and the national debt, just dwarf the gun thing."
I agree with you that this election will be about immigration because it already is. Please tell me the last time you remember Democrats getting to decide the issues. First, other than to rail on Bush for being such a f***-up, what are the Democrats going to say about Iraq or terrorism that they can all agree upon? What are they going to say about deficits? What are they going to say about health care? So far, its all about Bush being a liar and a fool. It's a good start, but people might be looking for some real policy solutions. In the absence of that, they'll just go back to immigrant bashing.
The Republicans have been yakking up the "immigration problem" for years on talk radio and its working for them right now. I've seen Kyl's TV ad about immigration. Why should he get a pass? If any Republican deserves to be voted out of office, its Jon Kyl.
So tell the Democrats how to trump the immigration issue. They need to know.
Excellent remarks, Liza. Will spare folks the long version, but we (self included) seem to be a lot better at bitching than providing solutions. I could write pages and pages about this.
Agree with you that if democrats think gun control is a good conversation at this time for CD 8, they should think again, and Graf should think long and hard before getting hot and bothered about abortion.
cc, while you are wishing for a ban on "extreme" and "radical" please include global warming and religious fanatacism just in case you get lucky.
Fedup's remarks aside, there will be efforts to cast Giffords as radical left.
The ads portraying Graf as extreme are already running.
Whoops. Hate it when I imply opposite of what I mean. Not suggesting a ban on discussing global warming or fanaticism. Meant to say that while you are wishing, cc, please resolve those problems as well.
Fixing middle east would also be nice.
Oh my, yes, Africa.
A cure for tinnitus would be fabulous.
randall holdridge,
Where do your 60% and 10% numbers come from on the immigration issue?
randall holdridge,
Voter turnout is usually a fair indicator of how concerned people are about the government. Pima County is way up there because 30.7% of registered voters dragged their sorry butts to the polls last Tuesday (or voted by mail.) However, in Maricopa County only 19.8% of them were able to make it. Statewide, a whopping 22.8% voted. This came from the AZ Secretary of State official website. Primary election turnout generally runs between 20% and 35% even in presidential year elections. This recent election shows we are on the lowest end of voter interest.
I would conclude that most voters don't exactly have a fire in their belly. Either that or they think voting is an exercise in futility.
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