Wednesday, August 23, 2006

CD 08 Tucson Weekly Poll

Here are the results from the Tucson Weekly web site:


Democrats:
Gabrielle Giffords: 45 percent
Patty Weiss: 27 percent
Jeff Latas: 6 percent
Alex Rodriguez: 1 percent
Bill Johnson: 1 percent
Francine Schacter: 1 percent
Undecided: 20 percent

OK, so the numbers add up to more than 100 percent. We rounded Francine Shacter’s .3 percent upward.

Republicans
Randy Graf: 36 percent
Steve Huffman: 13 percent
Mike Hellon: 10 percent
Mike Jenkins: 1 percent
Frank Antenori: 1 percent
Undecided: 39 percent

The poll, conducted by Margaret Kenski of Arizona Opinion, surveyed 300 Democrats and 300 Republicans in CD 8. It has a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percent.

18 comments:

x4mr said...

This is good news for Graf and fabulous news for Giffords, saying that Huffman/Hellon are failing to gain on Graf's initial momentum, and that Giffords has not only caught Patty's name recognition, but has sailed past it.

This data probably precedes any gains Jeff may realize with the DVD, and I do believe his numbers will increase.

Interesting that the Republican undecided is so much larger.

No need to remind folks, I know, but the poll that counts occurs on 9/12.

Art Jacobson said...

x4mr...

You have a good point about the delayed result of the Latas DVD. I'm surprised by the Latas numbers...and yes, the Fat Lady hasn't sung yet.

sirocco said...

Yes, three weeks is a long time. No campaign can afford to get complacent, least of all the apparent front-runners.

George Tuttle said...

Only 300 voters??

First of all, I would like to know just WHEN this poll was taken and secondly, how does one get a margin of error with only 300 voters?

I think this will be wrong.

Kralmajales said...

My post from RRR:

These numbers are huge for a lot of reasons.

When Patty's poll was released back in June, I argued that it was to boost funds and to boost the campaign. Otherwise releasing it would be a mistake.

By declaring yourself the front-runner you place yourself in a position of, where if the race tightens, the other campaign has massive momentum, and the losing campaign is left explaining what the heck went wrong.

I think Fedups reaction...a few posts up...it what I was talking about (not calling him out...what he said was interesting).

In this case, it wasn't a tightening...it was an out and out reversal...a 28% swing of sorts.

Now...the issue is this. Polls are snapshots....they can change. Look for a smart Weiss crew to try to make a lot out of any poll that cuts into the lead. A drop by 8 points in the next one would be sold as "Weiss Surges". The problem, still is, though that she had already declared herself the front-runner before.

The worry for the Giffords campaign is complacency, a lack of activity by people who think it is over, and voters thinking..."well I don't have to vote or contribute...she is winning."

I am sure the campaign knows this and will go a long way toward making sure that does not happen.

George:

Yes...300 voters is a small sample, but not unreasonable. Things could indeed change. I would look for Latas supporters to try to capitalize based on the DVD...and some sentiments that the Weiss campaign lost a 10% lead.

Kralmajales said...

Note one more thing:

The poll numbers could translate into more fundraising. I would watch and see how the current web fundraising campaign goes. Already close to $8000 in just a short time...with a goal of $10,000 by midnight.

http://www.giffordsforcongress.com

FEDUP said...

George, it was taken last week with a 4% margin of error. Taken during the push polling of Patty. (Interesting timing for both polls).

breaks down the specifics

As I said on RRR, the fact that only 8% of Patty voters knew he she was looks very suspect. I don't even buy that only 8% of the entire voting population knows who she is much less only 8% of her own voters.

vetdem said...

George Tuttle,

One gets a margin of error from the sample size and confidence level. It's just math. There is no secret. Polls like this typically have a 95% confidence level. Pollsters don't screw that up. It's not that hard. I could even teach you to calculate if you're interested.

Kralmajales said...

Uh...careful on the wording you quote Fedup. The question that gets at the 8% is those that "know her or have met her". That is far different that those who recognize her name.

This highlights the key problem that I have talked up since February. Name rec. in a primary has to translate into primary votes. In a primary, we are talking smarter people, activists, and party loyals. Unfortunately, these folks...in general...DONT know her NOR have met her.

Kralmajales said...

Oh...if anyone her tries to say that a slip of a 10% lead into a deficit of 18% is because of a push poll...tell them this.

First, highly unlikely.

Second, this poll came after all of the vicious attacks on Giffords by Weiss supporters, after arguing the poll was hers, after calling her a liar and deceitful, after an ad that was supposedly totally false, after a host of other things that SHOULD have boosted Patty.

What this tells me is that you all should quickly change your strategy. It didn't work and it won't. You need to actually campaign, contact voters, and talk about issues.

DBeamer said...

The new poll didn't take a proper share of the voters from the outlying counties. Also the poll was only conducted on voters who have voted in the previous two general elections.
DB

FEDUP said...

dbeamer, the poll DID take into account a proper share of Cochise and Santa Cruz. Check again.
They polled the most likely voters too. We can disect it all day but I believe Roger is correct. Weiss lost 28%.

Roger, you are correct that I am interpreting "knowing" in my own way. I don't buy that it is anything more than name recognition which makes me think the 8% is really off.

Kralmajales said...

Whatever this poll measured, I cannot believe it was so flawed that it has Giffords anything but doing quite quite well right now.

And the fact still remains, Patty's poll had her leading by 10% and she has been claiming up until even a week or two ago that the poll still shows that she is the leader.

Her campaign gambled by calling her the frontrunner...and now...people are talking.

Frankly, I don't suspect that Giffords is winning by 18%. That is a GIANT lead. I think there is a long long way to go and future polls could very easily show that lead to be smaller. There is a lot of time left and a lot more work to do if you are a Giffords supporter.

I take this as good news...and a payoff of sorts for the hard work of her supporters and volunteers...but no resting now.

wearetribal said...

fedup, The 8% is the percentage of ALL voters. They are the ones who say that they will vote for Weiss because they know her. This does not mean that others do not know her, it just means this is not the most important reason they support her. It means that a third of those who support Weiss do so because they know her. Left unasked is how many support other candidates because they know Weiss.

I think this poll sounds accurate. It is certainly right in line with my own experience and my predictions about how this would turn out. Name recognition just gets you the attention of the voters. Then you have to actually win their votes with something beyond just claiming over and over to be ahead in the campaign.

x4mr said...

Just couldn't stay away, could you, Roger?

I wonder what the detox program is for blogoholics. Then again, who says we ever have to quit!

You needn't concern yourself with Giffords camp becoming complacent or relaxing in any way until 11/8, and perhaps then only for a few days. The job just changes.

Anyone besides me smell hit pieces on the horizon? Real ones--not some nonsense about turning a picture upside down.

Stuff like they allude to over at kos.

Oh, Art, fabulous post on Conservatives, and have some thoughts to share there later.

Kralmajales said...

I tried so hard X4mr...I did...but I am a political junkie and I like discussing it. I was starting to bug my poor wife with tales of campaigns. I think SHE wanted me blogging again (grin).

'Sides...I missed some of you folks...

FEDUP said...

wearetribal, no you are wrong. The 8% is not of all voters. It is 8% of the voters that support Patty said they knew her. The number is still strange.

Contact Wick for the breakdown if you don't believe me.

wearetribal said...

Yep, you are right fedup. Guess I read it wrong. It does seem that they did not suggest any answers here, it was an open question.

So I would think many people who know her may have come up with other answers. Like "I trust her" or "her intelligence."

But I think it may also be that few people know her personally despite her long time in the city. She really has not been involved in that many groups or activities around here. And what she has done is at the board level, and boards meet infrequently and consist of not that many people.

Sure, people would meet her doing her reporting stuff. But that would be a one time encounter for an hour, tops. Not enough to say you know someone.

I also have to say that I have worked with some Giffords supporters who were there because they know Weiss.