Wednesday, August 16, 2006

CD-8 After The Primary, What?

I was given a copy of the Latas CD. It’s a nifty strategy for getting a candidate’s message out and I believe it’s the first time this has been done in Arizona politics. A tip of the hat to the Latas campaign.

Salette Latas, who also appears on the disc, is an excellent spokesperson for her husband’s campaign and would make an appealing candidate in her own right. Will the disc make up for a shortfall in other advertising strategies? Probably not, since I imagine that bulk mailings in sufficient numbers would be prohibitively expensive.

The disc is a nice compilation of video clips we’ve pretty much seen before and lays out positions we already know.

Both Latas and Weiss inveigh against “professional politicians” and offer themselves as “citizen legislators.” Of course once they are elected they will be professional politicians…the job, after all, that they have been campaigning for. I would certainly hope that once elected that they would stick around, season politically, rise in seniority and wisdom and serve the district for more than a term or two.

This “citizen legislator” pitch is pretty, but nothing more than a rhetorical flourish.
…………………………………………

The Arizona Republic has endorsed Gabrielle Giffords to be the CD 8 Democratic candidate. The Republic had this to say about Weiss and Latas, her two most prominent opponents:

"Patty Weiss has high name recognition after three decades as a news anchor with Tucson’s NBC affiliate. Her views on the issues are thoughtful but not substantially different than those of Giffords. Her work as a journalist has made her an informed observer of Arizona government and politics, but there is significant difference between reporting the issues and crafting public policy to address them.

"Jeff Latas, is a pilot with a hero’s record in the Air Force. His stridency about the Bush administration’s handling of Iraq may appeal to angry Democrats in the primary, but he will lack the necessary appeal to moderates in November."

………………………………………


With less than a month to the primary election it’s time to speculate about what will come after. Let me cut to what I take to be the heart of the matter, as unhappy as Data Porters of whatever camp, may be.

I’ve noticed that there is an assumption amongst Democrats here on TDP that when the hurly-burly’s done, and when the battle’s lost or won, the Democratic Party is going to pour money on the anointed head. Doesn’t matter who it is, or how much money they’ve raised, all shortfalls will be overcome and we can press on to victory with other people’s money.

Well, it ain’t going to happen. Yes the party has money, and some will find its way in support of various campaigns, but after the election the DCCC will evaluate the winner of each campaign and only on the basis of that evaluation call major donors and say, “Listen, you have to send Jones 2100 bucks.”

Simply winning the primary will not be enough. What is the candidate’s fund raising record? Can he help us out with the financing of the campaign in the general? What about breadth of support in his community? Are organizations representing a variety of interest groups supporting him? How does his political record, if any, measure up against the general demographics of his district? And so on, and so on, and so on.

Disappoint the DCCC in some category or categories and suddenly the race in your district, which before was one of the leaders, will drop down toward the bottom of the list of possible winners and eyes will be turned elsewhere.

Suppose for a moment that Patty wins. She wasn’t endorsed by Emily’s List, for whatever reason. Do you think those folks are now going to ask their members to send money to Weiss? I don’t. I think they’re going to think they have many other candidates they like better.

Remember that no matter how much money there is, there is a limited amount of it.

I believe that Giffords, by virtue of her background, temperament, experience, and fit with the people of Congressional District Eight, is our best chance to beat the Republicans in November. Vote your heart, vote for anyone you like, but remember that this is a fight to control Congress, a fight to defeat the New American Century people, and remember that winning in November is all that f-ing matters.

Now what about the losers after the election, whoever they may be. My guess is that Latas doesn’t want a state job. He might want to take a shot at Congress in two years, when incumbency has not yet become an advantage that is so hard to overcome. Kolbe came back and defeated McNulty the second time around.

If Patty doesn’t win, I’d like to see her run for Mayor. She would make an ideal spokesperson and front man for Tucson. I have no idea what Gabby might do, run again for Congress would be my hope. But, who knows?

Whoever the losers are, does anyone think they will put their shoulders to the wheel and hit the campaign trail? No, me neither. Maybe Francine would God bless her.

This has been a very long post. Sorry…now let the blog wars begin.

15 comments:

Craig said...

The 'paper from the devils' hellhole'?

I like that. :)

Anyway, while that paper may be based here in the Phoenix area, it professes to be "Arizona's" paper, so occasionally it's editorial board will deign to notice that there are islands of life in this state beyond Maricopa County.

Of course, it helps that the only political race that has any real entertainment value this year other than the CD5 and US Senate races is the one in CD8.

For what it's worth, no one here really cares who the Rep endorses either.

Rex Scott said...

The main reason the Republic endoresement is touted by those of us who back Giffords is because it joins endorsements by the Citizen and the Weekly, public interest groups (Arizona Education Assn., AFSCME, League of Conservation Voters, Human Rights Fund, etc.) and elected officials (Grijalva, Elias, Dupnik, etc.).

Art is dead on in his reasoning. Giffords has the resources and support on the ground to take the fight to the GOP. No other candidate can make that claim in a plausible way. The Republicans will pour money that Dems don't have to save their 15-seat House majority.

Giffords backers offer the complete package: broad-based support throughout the Democratic Party, a candidate whose record and proposals match our values and someone with the resources to counter the Republican money machine.

As for the other candidates in this field, I could back any of them (except Johnson!) for any other office. Francene especially impresses me with her varied life experiences, wit and strong stump presence. She would be a terrific candidate for county school superintendent or even county supervisor as she would get people excited about offices whoese responsibilities they may not fully understand

wearetribal said...

Yes ben, I agree. Weiss must be desperate.

x4mr said...

As I continue to reflect on this thing, my meters started tweaking about who is getting this call. I will assert that this phone poll is not a widespread, high volume thing.

Rather, I think it is a carefully crafted set of calls to those most likely to speak up, somewhat like that hit piece mailed to all of the PC's a few months back.

I've posted that a fairly credible guy told me a Weiss victory was part of the Huffman plan, and that there were action items associated with it. The Star article last week followed by a nasty Scarpinato piece on this phone activity sounds pretty orchestrated, and pretty republican.

Of course, simpler explanation is that Weiss campaign is testing some negatives, and being downright persnickety in the folks they are choosing to call.

This isn't Giffords.

When dust settles on this poll, Art, will offer some remarks on the subject of your post, which as always is worthy of discussion.

Art Jacobson said...

I'm happy that you all enjoy The Data Port, and playing in the sandbox. But would it be too great a strain to comment on the subject of the post?

If you stray too far from the topic I'll begin to remove off-topic posts.

To discuss your own interests why not start your own blogs?

Respectfully submitted

The Management

Liza said...

Okay, let's nip this in the bud. Here's just a very small example of what is going to happen:

"DCCC Reserves Time
The DCCC has reserved around $20M worth of TV time in at least 14 media markets around the country, according to an email sent out to targeted GOP members by the NRCC. A DCCC source wouldn't confirm which districts they bought in, but did acknowledge the early buy had been made.

GOPers say the Dems have bought time in Cedar Rapids, IA (IA 01 and 03), Denver (CO 07), Philadelphia (PA 06, 07, 08), Miami and West Palm Beach (FL 22), Hartford (CT 02, 04, 05), Albuquerque (NM 01), Tucson (AZ 08) and all the markets (Indianapolis, Terre Haute, Evansville, Lexington, Louisville, Cincinnati and Charleston) that broadcast into IN 08, IN 09 and KY 04.

Do the math and it is clear that the DCCC is locking in time in all the CDs that are widely viewed as the most competitive -- except one. Are Dems so confident in reclaiming Rep. Bob Ney's (R) seat that they don't feel the need to spend the money to reserve time on the five media markets that make up the sprawling OH 18?" (End quote)

The Democratic Party and related organizations will support the Democratic candidate who wins the primary. What a lot of pure, unadulterated hogwash to suggest that they won't. The Democratic Party understands that they have a great chance of success in CD8. What a load of unsubstantiated baloney to even suggest that they would give up on it if Giffords doesn't win.

So, we are supposed to vote for Giffords because she has been able to raise more money because she had a five year head start? Does this mean that "citizens" should never come forward and offer to serve their country because these political jobs are best left for those who come up through the ranks of local and state politics? At the risk of being labeled a "Giffonator", I will just say this is almost as dumb as the GOP saying that Ned Lamont's victory would empower Al Qaeda.

I once again encourage all voters who might be reading this to vote on September 12 for the Democratic CD8 candidate who APPEALS to you, not the one who appeals to the Arizona Republic or whoever. Vote for who you want to represent you in Congress.

Is that so unreasonable?

Liza said...

Art,
I am more than willing to stay on subject as you requested because right now its YOU in my crosshairs.

This whole concept of the "citizen" candidate not being quite up to snuff just has me riled. For example, the Latas Campaign didn't collect nearly as much money as Giffords or Weiss, but they got an amazing amount of mileage out of the resources they were able to secure and this includes some VERY TALENTED people who work pro bono.

Creativity and thinking "outside the box" as everyone likes to say, is really a very desirable quality in a candidate. Its also a very unusual quality as our legislatures and Congress seem to be populated mostly by run-of-the- mill, mediocre career politicians who need a poll before they can make a statement and who care more about their political careers than they do about their constituencies.

This country needs to change and divert itself from a failed foreign policy, a destructive domestic agenda, and a house-of-cards economy that is fueled by unprecedented debt. We need change and that means we need to break with tradition and elect representatives with fresh, new, outside the box ideas. Those representatives may very be "citizens."

Art Jacobson said...

Liza...

Reserving time and paying for it are two different things. If the party decides that the winner of the CD 8 primary is not as viable as a candidate in another part of the country they'll pull back.

Art

Liza said...

sirocco,
What I'm objecting to is the fact that Giffords' head start in the world of politics has been employed as part of the campaign strategy. "This candidate has the most money and the most connections and money is what it takes to win and we must win and so on and so on..." I'm tired of hearing it. If we start believing that, then we're never going to rid Congress of the mediocrity that consumes it because WE AREN'T VOTING FOR PEOPLE WHO WILL SPEAK TRUTH TO POWER ON OUR BEHALF.

We have to learn how to promote the candidates that the people really want to represent them because this is, in fact, a representative democracy. It is not true, or accurate, or even close enough for government work to say that there is one and only candidate in CD8 who will generate support after the primary. I repeat myself here, that is HOGWASH.

Trying to scare people into believing that they will shoot themselves in the foot unless they vote for the one and only candidate who can win this thing because this candidate has all the endorsements and broad support and blah blah blah is not even ethical, in my opinion. It is not as though her opponents lack credentials. If you support Giffords, well and good, vote for her. But this malarkey about how she is the only hope we've got has got to stop because it's just so much HOGWASH.

Liza said...

Art,
Are you pleased that we are back on subject, at least for the time being?

I understand that reserving is different from buying. But, Art, CD8 is wide open and there isn't going to be any pulling back here.

For one thing, just look at the competition. I will admit that I haven't spent an immense amount of time learning about the GOP candidates but I honestly don't see much there. What have they got other than immigrant bashers and fear mongers? They aren't even good looking. Unless one of them can pull a rabbit out of a hat, I don't see a winner.

Our candidates are electable and the Democrats will fight for CD8.

x4mr said...

Liza,

I can see some aspects of your arguments that any D nominee will receive some support in the general, but this is about MUCH MUCH more than money, and I have to pretty much concur with just about everything in Art's original post, but I describe it differently.

What Giffords has built goes far beyond a bank account, way far. We are talking about a sharp individual who has learned how to run for office.

It takes not just money, but an entire apparatus of many items including relationships not just with individuals but with various agencies and organizations, and building endorsements not just of the kind that make the paper, but the kind that lead to letters like the one I just got from Robert Reich.

There is an entire array of people, organizations, volunteers, contributors, and also all sorts of intelligence that comes from research and understanding of the community.

There is also campaign staffing, organization, and operations.

It's a tip of the iceburg thing. What was under the water that got the endorsement of the Citizen, the Republic, the Tucson Weekly, and so on?

Should Patty or Jeff prevail, yes, Giffords would support the winner, but I question how much of all of this would transfer, and how effectively.

Those moved by Jeff should vote for him, and it will make a difference moving forward. A really strong showing for Latas will translate into something.

If Giffords prevails on 9/12, her machinery won't skip a beat or feel a bump in the road.

I don't think that's the case with the other campaigns.

Lastly, I don't buy for a second that Latas or Weiss have faced the scrutiny and character assassination that has been directed at Giffords.

For example, with your candidate my concern about what happened over at kos with DemocraticLuntz never did get resolved.

You realize the vilification Jeff faces if he wins in September.

Liza said...

x4mr,
I understand what you're saying, but I'm not compelled to vote for anyone because of their organizational structure, backers, and connections.

DemocraticLuntz over at Kos hasn't got a leg to stand on.

x4mr said...

Liza,

I hope you know that I understand what you are saying, and you've already heard me praise Jeff. By the way, also hope it's clear that I am not voting for infrastructure alone. The reason it may occur that way is that I really don't see a huge distinction on positions on issues. All three are just fine compared to the atrocity in the White House.

Perhaps we are doing the pragmatist versus the idealist thing, and there is definitely a balance. In 2000 Nadar supporters chose their ideals over making sure the best person won office.

Frankly, would rather see Giffords win 11/7 than Latas lose 11/7. I am speculating that you perceive a greater difference between Giffords and Latas. I think highly of both.

I really do hope you are right about DL and agree that's what should be the case.

Liza said...

cc burro,
Your comments are amazing because its like you've been reading my mind. X4mr got me thinking about what's coming after the primary. A couple of months ago I would not have thought that the GOP would be so brazen as to actually try to make an association between Democrats and Al Qaeda, but that's how its shaping up. Just word associations right now, "Weak, anti-war Democrats empower Al Qaeda." But, that's all it takes to get their stooges in the corporate media and conservative talk radio to repeat the message until a certain type of person has the association firmly emplanted in their head.

In short, I expect this to be really, really ugly. I am expecting the attacks on Democrats to be brutal, without exception. The veterans will be "swiftboated" and I can't even begin to predict what they'll come up with for the rest of them.

The increasingly difficult challenge being faced by Democrats is to keep the issues in front of the electorate while simultaneously defusing the GOP attacks, no matter how baseless and inane they might be. The GOP has nothing to offer the average person who does not benefit a great deal from their tax cuts. The GOP is squandering the future of the nation with unprecedented debt, a violent, unilateral foreign policy, and a total disregard for the environment. So, they are going to do what they do best. Focus on a couple of distraction issues (terror and immigration) and attack their opponents as viciously and brutally as they can.

Why does it work for them? I don't know, I honestly don't know. I would just say that this is a problem for the entire Democratic party, not just for the individual candidates. We have to learn how to protect our candidates.

x4mr said...

Liza,

The GOP with Rove at the helm is capable of ANYTHING, and it is appropriate to consider this, and this recent push poll is a preview of coming attractions.

Azyoulike is a Weiss supporter, by the way, and Weiss is the one D candidate that has chosen to go negative. Won't say more about that at TDP.

What I will say at TDP is that Giffords has had serving in political office in mind for at least 6 years, since she ran in 2000, and I'd bet (don't know) a certain "I just might" existed significantly before then.

Bottom line, all of my math and all of my meters say that she has been preparing for this for a long time.

Not implying this stupid poll will impact the election, but if Giffords prevails on 9/12, when the knives and arrows descend, the GOP might learn that facing Weiss would have been a better idea.